IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ott/wpaper/0804e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Spirit of Capitalism and Expectation Driven Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Lilia Karnizova

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

Abstract

While news shocks are believed to be instrumental in explaining business cycles, many existing models fail to predict an economic boom in consumption, investment, employment, output and the stock market in response to good news about future productivity. This paper proposes and evaluates a model with the intrinsic desire for wealth accumulation, or ‘the spirit of capitalism’ hypothesis, which generates the aforementioned responses. Restrictions for the existence of expectation driven business cycles are derived analytically. The restrictions are confirmed by an estimated version of the model. The proposed preference specification is supported with additional empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilia Karnizova, 2008. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Expectation Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers 0804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0804e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sciencessociales.uottawa.ca/economics/sites/socialsciences.uottawa.ca.economics/files/0804E.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark, David & Postlewaite, Andrew, 1998. "Relative income concerns and the rise in married women's employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 157-183, October.
    2. Smith, William T., 1999. "Risk, the Spirit of Capitalism and Growth: The Implications of a Preference for Capital," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 241-262, April.
    3. Rafael Di Tella & Robert J. MacCulloch & Andrew J. Oswald, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of Happiness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 809-827, November.
    4. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    5. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    6. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    8. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    9. Yongjin Park, 2010. "The Second Paycheck to Keep Up with the Joneses: Relative Income Concerns and Labor Market Decisions of Married Women," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 255-276, Spring.
    10. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    11. Aronsson, Thomas & Blomquist, Soren & Sacklen, Hans, 1999. "Identifying Interdependent Behaviour in an Empirical Model of Labour Supply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 607-626, Nov.-Dec..
    12. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    14. Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2005. "Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 963-1002.
    15. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2007. "Methods to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2599-2636, August.
    16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
    17. Jason Bram & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 59-78.
    18. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    19. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    20. Cole, Harold L & Mailath, George J & Postlewaite, Andrew, 1992. "Social Norms, Savings Behavior, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1092-1125, December.
    21. Zou, Heng-fu, 1994. "'The spirit of capitalism' and long-run growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 279-293, July.
    22. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    23. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
    24. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    25. Francis, Johanna L., 2009. "Wealth and the capitalist spirit," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 394-408, September.
    26. Haim Levy, 2004. "Prospect Theory and Mean-Variance Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1015-1041.
    27. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Stock-Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 133-157, March.
    28. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
    29. Boileau, Martin & Braeu, Rebecca, 2007. "The Spirit Of Capitalism, Asset Returns, And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 214-230, April.
    30. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    31. Larry Samuelson, 2004. "Information-Based Relative Consumption Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 93-118, January.
    32. Bisin, Alberto & Verdier, Thierry, 1998. "On the cultural transmission of preferences for social status," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 75-97, October.
    33. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    34. Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2003. "Sunspot Fluctuations in Asset Prices and Business Cycles in Japan Over 1986–1999," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 253-274, September.
    35. Beaudry, Paul & Guay, Alain, 1996. "What do interest rates reveal about the functioning of real business cycle models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1661-1682.
    36. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    37. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    38. Grant McQueen, 2004. "Whence GARCH? A Preference-Based Explanation for Conditional Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 915-949.
    39. Heng-fu Zou, 1995. "The spirit of capitalism and savings behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 131-143, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    2. Jizheng Huang & Heng-fu Zou, 2013. "Asset Pricing, Capital Structure and the Spirit of Capitalism in a Production Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 367-384, November.
    3. repec:cuf:journl:y:2013:v:14:i:1:n:3:huang is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    6. David R. F. Love, 2011. "Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(1), pages 93-110.
    7. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jaccard Ivan, 2011. "Asset Pricing and Housing Supply in a Production Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-40, October.
    9. Ivan Jaccard, 2010. "Asset Pricing and Housing Supply in a Production Economy," 2010 Meeting Papers 605, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    11. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    12. Marco Airaudo, 2017. "Complex stock price dynamics under Max Weber’s spirit of capitalism hypothesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 47-73, June.
    13. Guo, Jang-Ting & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana & Weder, Mark, 2015. "News about aggregate demand and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 83-96.
    14. James M. Nason & Takashi Kano, 2004. "Business Cycle Implications of Habit Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. M. Fatih Guvenen, 2003. "A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing: Habit Formation or Cross-sectional Heterogeneity?," RCER Working Papers 499, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    16. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    17. Zhao, Ningru & Shi, Yukun & Sun, Yang & Miao, Jiaming, 2020. "Aggregate labor market fluctuations under news shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 397-405.
    18. Kuan‐Jen Chen & Ching‐Chong Lai, 2015. "On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 261-294, March.
    19. Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2016. "News shocks and labour market dynamics in matching models," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 906-930, August.
    20. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spirit of Capitalism; News Shocks; Business Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0804e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aggey Semenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deottca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.