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News and knowledge capital

  • Christopher M. Gunn
  • Alok Johri

We explore the ability of a model with knowledge capital to generate business cycles driven by expectations of future movement in total factor productivity (TFP). These cycles are characterized by a boom in which consumption, investment, output and hours-worked all rise in advance of any actual movement in TFP. We model knowledge capital as an input into production which is endogenously produced through a learning-by-doing process. When firms receive news of an impending productivity increase, the value of knowledge capital rises, inducing the firm to hire more hours to "invest" in knowledge capital. The rise in the value of knowledge capital immediately raises the value of the firm, causing an appreciation in share prices, a feature that has empirical support. The increase in output of the firm allows both consumption and investment to rise despite the absence of any contemporaneous productivity shock. If the expected increase in productivity fails to materialize, the model generates a recession as well as a crash in the stock market.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/2009-02.pdf
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Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2009-02.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2009-02
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  2. Barro, Robert J & King, Robert G, 1984. "Time-separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-39, November.
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  7. Alok Johri, 2009. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 736-754, October.
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  9. Alok Johri & Christopher Gunn, 2009. "News and knowledge capital," 2009 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Alok Johri & Amartya Lahiri, 2008. "Persistent Real Exchange Rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, McMaster University.
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  17. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  18. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
  19. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
  20. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Working Papers 14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Alok Johri and Marc-André Letendre, 2006. "What do “residuals” from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-01, McMaster University.
  22. Clarke, Andrew J., 2006. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations: Does the form of the accumulation technology matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 434-439, September.
  23. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 57-86, October.
  24. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
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