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Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles

  • David R.F. Love

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Brock University)

This paper points out that negative comovements between macroeconomic aggregates are commonly observed in US data and that this is not explained by conventional business cycle models which emphasize positive comovements only. We discuss how these facts can be readily explained in simple Neoclassical models by the dynamic responses to signals (news) about future economic fundamentals unrelated to current fundamentals. These "anticipation effects" are contrasted with the effects of immediate shocks to current fundamentals which are the main source of fluctuations in standard RBC models. Simulation results illustrate that the enriche model dynamics under the anticipation assumption can replicate both the positive and negative comovements observed in the data and magnifies the effects of shocks, without negative implications for the model's predictions regarding other moments.

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File URL: ftp://coffee.econ.brocku.ca/RePec/pdf/0704.pdf
File Function: First version, June 2007
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Paper provided by Brock University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0704.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision: Jun 2007
Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0704
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  1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
  2. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
  6. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  8. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Gagnon, Joseph E, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Deterministic Extended Path," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 35-36, January.
  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  11. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. David R.F. Love, 2007. "Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 0704, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2007.
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
  14. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  15. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  16. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1993. "Impulse dynamics and propagation mechanisms in a real business cycle model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-81.
  17. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  18. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  19. David R.F. Love & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2004. "Anticipation and Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 0703, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2007.
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