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Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles

  • David R.F. Love

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Brock University)

This paper shows that negative comovements between major macroeconomic variables at business-cycle frequencies are commonly observed, but that standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory fails to predict this feature of the data. We show that allowing for ``anticipation effects'' in response to ``news shocks'' enables standard RBC models to predict both the observed patterns of negative comovement and overall positive correlations. Anticipation also improves magnification of shocks in the model without harming predictions for the other second moments central to RBC studies. Anticipation effects improve on standard RBC frameworks by offering an empirically plausible explanation for the nontrivial fraction of time that aggregate variables are observed to comove negatively.

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File URL: ftp://coffee.econ.brocku.ca/RePec/pdf/0908.pdf
File Function: First version, June 2007
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Paper provided by Brock University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0908.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0908
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  1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," NBER Working Papers 10776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
  3. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  4. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  6. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  8. David R.F. Love, 2007. "Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 0704, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2007.
  9. David R.F. Love & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2004. "Anticipation and Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 0703, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2007.
  10. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  14. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  15. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  16. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1993. "Impulse dynamics and propagation mechanisms in a real business cycle model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-81.
  17. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  18. Gagnon, Joseph E, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Deterministic Extended Path," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 35-36, January.
  19. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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