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News about Aggregate Demand and the Business Cycle

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  • Weder, Mark
  • Sirbu, Anca
  • Guo, Jang Ting

Abstract

We show that an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news shocks to two formulations of future consumption demand or government spending on goods and services. In sharp contrast to many studies in the existing expectations-driven business cycle literature, this result does not rely on non-separable preferences or investment adjustment costs. When the economy is subject to anticipated total factor productivity or investment-specific technology shocks, the relative strength of the intertemporal substitution effect needs to be enhanced for our model to exhibit positive macroeconomic co-movement and business cycle statistics that are consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Weder, Mark & Sirbu, Anca & Guo, Jang Ting, 2014. "News about Aggregate Demand and the Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100276, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100276
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanović, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Review," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(1), March.
    3. Christopher M. Gunn, 2018. "Overaccumulation, Interest, and Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 479-511, March.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    5. Tania Karamisheva, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 17-38.
    6. Ali, Syed Zahid & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2021. "Anticipated versus unanticipated productivity shocks and hours-worked," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 547-572.
    7. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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