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Reál üzleti ciklusok. Áttekintés
[Real business cycles. A survey]

  • Lőrincz, Szabolcs
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    A tanulmány a nyolcvanas évek elején született reál üzleti ciklusok elméletét foglalja össze. A standard növekedési modellből kiindulva, majd a Solow-féle reziduummal mért technológiai sokkok nyomán a technológiai fejlődést jellemző paramétert egy sztochasztikus folyamattal ábrázolva, valamint fogyasztást, munka- és szabadidőt optimalizáló egyéneket feltételezve, racionális várakozások és általános egyensúlyi keretek között olyan modell szerkeszthető, amely az empíria által leírt ciklusjelenséghez a reálváltozókra viszonylag jól illeszkedő idősorokat generál. Az alapmodell megoldása tehát egyben versenyegyensúly is, piaci tökéletlenségek nélkül magyarázza az aggregált fluktuációt. Az elmélet ezen irányzata fejlődése során azonban általánosabb érvényű lett, és napjainkban kalibrálható sztochasztikus dinamikus általános egyensúlyelméleti modellek építésével a makroökonómia egyik legfontosabb elemzési eszközévé vált. Így részben el is távolodott az eredeti célkitűzéstől kompetitív környezetben technológiai sokkokkal magyarázni a ciklusjelenségeket , mintegy keretet adva számtalan probléma megfogalmazásának és vizsgálatának. A tanulmány elmélettörténeti jellegű, és főképp az irányzat első tíz évével foglalkozik, megemlítve a főbb kiterjesztéseket, de röviden kitér az újabb fejleményekre is.

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    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): XLVII (2000)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 509-530

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:334
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    1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    3. Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1987. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," UCLA Economics Working Papers 496, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Kydland, Finn E. & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The workweek of capital and its cyclical implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 343-360.
    5. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "A note on computing competitive equilibria in linear models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 149-160, January.
    6. Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    12. Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-71, May.
    13. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    16. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
    18. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
    19. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
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