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Reál üzleti ciklusok. Áttekintés
[Real business cycles. A survey]

  • Lőrincz, Szabolcs

A tanulmány a nyolcvanas évek elején született reál üzleti ciklusok elméletét foglalja össze. A standard növekedési modellből kiindulva, majd a Solow-féle reziduummal mért technológiai sokkok nyomán a technológiai fejlődést jellemző paramétert egy sztochasztikus folyamattal ábrázolva, valamint fogyasztást, munka- és szabadidőt optimalizáló egyéneket feltételezve, racionális várakozások és általános egyensúlyi keretek között olyan modell szerkeszthető, amely az empíria által leírt ciklusjelenséghez a reálváltozókra viszonylag jól illeszkedő idősorokat generál. Az alapmodell megoldása tehát egyben versenyegyensúly is, piaci tökéletlenségek nélkül magyarázza az aggregált fluktuációt. Az elmélet ezen irányzata fejlődése során azonban általánosabb érvényű lett, és napjainkban kalibrálható sztochasztikus dinamikus általános egyensúlyelméleti modellek építésével a makroökonómia egyik legfontosabb elemzési eszközévé vált. Így részben el is távolodott az eredeti célkitűzéstől kompetitív környezetben technológiai sokkokkal magyarázni a ciklusjelenségeket , mintegy keretet adva számtalan probléma megfogalmazásának és vizsgálatának. A tanulmány elmélettörténeti jellegű, és főképp az irányzat első tíz évével foglalkozik, megemlítve a főbb kiterjesztéseket, de röviden kitér az újabb fejleményekre is.

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Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): XLVII (2000)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 509-530

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Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:334
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  1. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  2. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "A note on computing competitive equilibria in linear models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 149-160, January.
  3. Kydland, Finn E. & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The workweek of capital and its cyclical implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 343-360.
  4. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
  6. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
  7. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  10. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
  11. Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-71, May.
  12. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
  13. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  15. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
  16. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  17. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  18. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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