Les modèles du cycle économique face à la corrélation productivité-emploi
Since the time of Keynes, Dunlop and Tarshis, questions concerning the procyclicity of real wages, the correlation between labor productivity and employment, and the compatibility of these stylized facts with business cycle theories have been highly controversial. In this paper, we evaluate modern business cycle theories in the light of these stylized facts, with a particular emphasis on real business cycle (RBC) models. Our judgment is that RBC models do not generate comovements like those observed in the data. Recent attempts to modify RBC models to correct their empirical shortcomings have not entirely respected the basic philosophy of the RBC approach. Depuis l’époque de Keynes, Dunlop et Tarshis, les questions de la nature procyclique du salaire réel, de la corrélation entre la productivité des travailleurs et l’emploi, et de la compatibilité de ces faits observés avec les théories du cycle économique suscitent de vives controverses. Dans ce texte, nous évaluons les théories modernes du cycle économique en rapport avec ces faits observés importants, avec une emphase particulière sur les modèles du cycle à caractère réel (MCR). Notre verdict est que les MCR n’engendrent pas de comouvements qui sont conformes aux faits; les tentatives récentes de modifier les MCR pour corriger leurs défauts au plan empirique ne respectent pas entièrement l’esprit original de l’approche MCR.
Volume (Year): 67 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 (décembre)
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