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The "News" View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral U.S. Data

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  • Paul Beaudry
  • Franck Portier

Abstract

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral U.S. data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in Beaudry and Portier [2004b]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the U.S., innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect U.S. sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving U.S. TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2005. "The "News" View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 11496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois & Portier, Franck, 1997. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-121, November.
    3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "The spirit of capitalism and expectation-driven business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 739-752, September.
    3. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Inaba, Masaru, 2012. "Collateral Constraint And News-Driven Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 752-776, November.
    4. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
    5. Kuan‐Jen Chen & Ching‐Chong Lai, 2015. "On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 261-294, March.
    6. Roger Hammersland, 2008. "Classical identification: A viable road for data to inform structural modeling," Discussion Papers 562, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2008. "Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2407, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
    9. Lucke, Bernd & Haertel, Thomas, 2008. "Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-21.
    10. Paul Beaudry & Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier, 2011. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, January.
    11. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    12. Lilia Karnizova, 2007. "News versus Sunspot Shocks in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 0706E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    13. Patrick Feve & Ahmat Jidoud, 2014. "News Shocks, Information Flows and SVARs," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 113-114, pages 293-307.
    14. Féve, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 919-932.
    15. Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2014. "Are predictable improvements in TFP contractionary or expansionary: Implications from sectoral TFP?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 171-175.
    16. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Miyazawa, Kensuke & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 292-304.
    17. Bibiana Lanzilotta Mernies, 2015. "Expectativas empresariales: consecuencias en el crecimiento en Uruguay," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, March.
    18. Roger Hammersland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence using a procedure of Structural Model Design," Discussion Papers 569, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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