IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ukc/ukcedp/1123.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Credit Spread and U.S. Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Junsang Lee
  • Keisuke Otsu

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in order to investigate the impact of credit spread shocks on the U.S. business cycle. We find that the shocks to the investment specific technology and the preference weights on consumption and leisure are the main sources of output fluctuation. Shocks to the credit spread and productivity are the main source of the fluctuation in the investment to output ratio. Credit spread shocks also had a significant impact on the output during the recent financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Junsang Lee & Keisuke Otsu, 2011. "The Credit Spread and U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Economics 1123, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/repec/1123.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    2. Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
    3. Keisuke Otsu, 2009. "International Business Cycle Accounting," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-29, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Intersectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Comovement, and News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 77-114, February.
    2. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "New Perspectives On Depreciation Shocks As A Source Of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1209-1233, September.
    3. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    4. Christoph Gortz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "Learning, Capital Embodied Technology and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 708-723, October.
    5. Rahul Nath, 2018. "Equity Pricing New Keynesian Models with Nominal Rigidities and Investment," Economics Series Working Papers 850, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2018. "What can we learn about news shocks from the late 1990s and early 2000s boom-bust period?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-105.
    7. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    8. Juan Guerra-Salas & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2021. "Search Frictions and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 258-279, January.
    9. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
    10. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    11. Juan M. Morelli, 2021. "Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Thomet, Jacqueline & Wegmueller, Philipp, 2021. "Technology Shocks And Hours Worked: A Cross-Country Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 1020-1052, June.
    13. Akande, Emmanuel, 2013. "Investment Shocks: Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 52159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nadav Ben Zeev & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "Investment‐Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1443-1464, October.
    15. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    16. Khan, Hashmat & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "Investment shocks and the comovement problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-130, January.
    17. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    18. Nathan S. Balke & Enrique Martínez García & Zheng Zeng, 2017. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty," Globalization Institute Working Papers 317, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Wille Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 867-887, December.
    20. Wei Dai & Mark Weder & Bo Zhang, 2020. "Animal Spirits, Financial Markets, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2053-2083, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr Anirban Mitra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.