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Consumption heterogeneity, employment dynamics, and macroeconomic co-movement

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  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Bruce Preston

Abstract

Real-business-cycle models necessarily rely on total factor productivity shocks to explain the observed co-movement between consumption, investment, and hours. However, an emerging body of evidence identifies "investment shocks" as important drivers of business cycles. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption across employed and nonemployed can generate co-movement in response to fluctuations in the marginal efficiency of investment. Estimation reveals that these shocks explain the bulk of business-cycle variance in consumption, investment, and hours. A corollary of the model's empirical success is that the labor wedge is not important at business-cycle frequencies.

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  • Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Consumption heterogeneity, employment dynamics, and macroeconomic co-movement," Staff Reports 399, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:399
    Note: Previous title: “Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Comovement” For a published version of this report, see Stefano Eusepi and Bruce Preston, "Consumption Heterogeneity, Employment Dynamics, and Macroeconomic Co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics 71 (April 2015): 13-32.
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    Cited by:

    1. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3030-3070, October.
    2. Khan, Hashmat & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "Investment shocks and the comovement problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-130, January.
    3. Francesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2010. "Investment-specific technology shocks and consumption," Working Paper 2010/30, Norges Bank.
    4. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Intersectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Comovement, and News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 77-114, February.
    5. Piero Ferri, 2011. "Macroeconomics of Growth Cycles and Financial Instability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14260, June.
    6. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    7. Auclert, Adrien & Bardóczy, Bence & Rognlie, Matthew, 2020. "MPCs, MPEs and Multipliers: A Trilemma for New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14977, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hikaru Saijo & Cosmin Ilut, 2015. "Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 917, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Piero Ferri & Annalisa Cristini & Anna Maria Variato, 2019. "Growth, unemployment and heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 573-593, September.
    10. Ilut, Cosmin & Saijo, Hikaru, 2021. "Learning, confidence, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 354-376.
    11. Benjamin Caswell, 2021. "Investment Shocks," Working Papers 335109180, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. Furlanetto, Francesco & Natvik, Gisle J. & Seneca, Martin, 2013. "Investment shocks and macroeconomic co-movement," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 208-216.
    13. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    14. Kuan‐Jen Chen & Ching‐Chong Lai, 2015. "On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 261-294, March.
    15. Luca Guerrieri & Dale Henderson & Jinill Kim, 2020. "Interpreting shocks to the relative price of investment with a two‐sector model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 82-98, January.
    16. Florin O. Bilbiie, 2011. "Nonseparable Preferences, Frisch Labor Supply, and the Consumption Multiplier of Government Spending: One Solution to a Fiscal Policy Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 221-251, February.
    17. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2015. "Consumption heterogeneity, employment dynamics and macroeconomic co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 13-32.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; investment shocks; heterogeneity; labor market dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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