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Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket

Listed author(s):
  • Hashem M. Pesaran
  • Ron P. Smith

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort of DSGE and the resistance of some in the profession to alternatives has become a straitjacket that restricts empirical and theoretical experimentation and inhibits innovation and that the profession should embrace a more flexible approach to macroeconometric modelling. We describe one possible approach.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3447.

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Date of creation: 2011
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3447
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  1. Koop, G. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 2011. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1131, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2010. "Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 1239, European Central Bank.
  5. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Frank Schorfheide, 2010. "Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique," NBER Working Papers 16401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "The role of theory in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 61-79, May.
  8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report 409, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brock Mendel, 2010. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 67-84, Fall.
  11. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2011. "Aggregation in large dynamic panels," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 0892, European Central Bank.
  14. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
  15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Cogley Timothy & Yagihashi Takeshi, 2010. "Are DSGE Approximating Models Invariant to Shifts in Policy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-33, October.
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  18. Thomas J. Sargent, 1975. "The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics," Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Pesaran, Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2010. "Econometric analysis of high dimensional VARs featuring a dominant unit," Working Paper Series 1194, European Central Bank.
  20. Pesaran, M. H., 1981. "Identification of rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 375-398, August.
  21. Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models: Progress and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 16781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 261-289, 08.
  23. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 196, Society for Computational Economics.
  24. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  25. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. P., 1985. "Evaluation of macroeconometric models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 125-134, April.
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