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Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model

  • Stephane Dees
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • L. Vanessa Smith
  • Ron P. Smith

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate equation. The IS equation includes a real exchange rate variable and a country-specific foreign output variable to capture direct inter-country linkages. In accord with the theory all variables are measured as deviations from their steady states, which are estimated as long-horizon forecasts from a reduced-form cointegrating global vector autoregression. The resulting rational expectations model is then estimated for 33 countries on data for 1980Q1-2006Q4, by inequality constrained IV, using lagged and contemporaneous foreign variables as instruments, subject to the restrictions implied by the NK theory. The multi-country DSGE NK model is then solved to provide estimates of identified supply, demand and monetary policy shocks. Following the literature, we assume that the within country supply, demand and monetary policy shocks are orthogonal, though shocks of the same type (e.g. supply shocks in different countries) can be correlated. We discuss estimation of impulse response functions and variance decompositions in such large systems, and present estimates allowing for both direct channels of international transmission through regression coefficients and indirect channels through error spillover effects. Bootstrapped error bands are also provided for the cross country responses of a shock to the US monetary policy.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3081.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3081
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  1. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0703, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
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  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0715, Banco de Espa�a.
  9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2005. "Permanent vs Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0501, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  11. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Econometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 592-649, August.
  12. Dees, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V. & Smith, R.P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0803, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  15. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
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  19. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  20. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
  22. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
  23. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2009. "Monetary policy shocks, Choleski identification, and DNK models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1014-1021, October.
  24. Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  25. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  26. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
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