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Unusual Shocks in our Usual Models

Author

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  • Ferroni, Filippo
  • Fisher, Jonas
  • Melosi, Leonardo

Abstract

We propose a method to allow usual business cycle models to account for the unusual COVID episode. The pandemic and the public and private responses to it are represented by a new shock called the Covid shock, which loads onto wedges that underlie the usual shocks and comes with news about its evolution. We apply our method to a standard medium-scale model, estimating the loadings with 2020q2 data and the evolving news using professional forecasts. It accounts for most of the early macroeconomic dynamics, was inflationary and a persistent drag on activity, and the majority of its effects were unanticipated. We also show how the Covid shock can be used estimate DSGE models with data before, during, and after the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas & Melosi, Leonardo, 2023. "Unusual Shocks in our Usual Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 17830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17830
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stefan Hohberger, 2025. "Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-49, February.
    3. Lansing, Kevin J., 2024. "Replicating business cycles and asset returns with sentiment and low risk aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Nurlan Turdaliev & Yahong Zhang, 2025. "The rise in household debt and housing prices during COVID-19: the role of pandemic support policies," Working Papers 2503, University of Windsor, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2025.
    6. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2024. "Enhancing forecast accuracy through frequencydomain combination: Applications to financial and economic indicators," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2024, Bank of Finland.
    7. Shi, Jiping, 2025. "News Uncertainty and Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 81, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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