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The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy


  • Morris Goldstein

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Nicholas R. Lardy

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)


Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007-08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising since in the first twenty-five years of economic reform China's trade and current account surpluses were quite small by East Asian standards, averaging less than 2 percent of GDP. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more recently the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation of the renminbi over the past fifteen months and will contrast the pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder, "three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the renminbi.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2009. "The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa87, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:ppress:pa87
    Note: Policy Analyses in International Economics 87

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    Cited by:

    1. Urban J. Jermann & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue, 2019. "The Two-Pillar Policy for the RMB," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    3. James Xiaohe Zhang, 2011. "RMB Appreciation or Fiscal Stimulus, and their Policy Implications," Chapters, in: Lilai Xu (ed.), China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Dennis Tao Yang, 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 125-146, Fall.
    5. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    6. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.
    7. Ryan Rutkowski, 2015. "Service Sector Reform in China," Policy Briefs PB15-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Morris GOLDSTEIN & Daniel XIE, 2009. "US Credit Crisis and Spillovers to Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 204-222, December.
    9. James Zhang, 2012. "Will RMB appreciation reduce trade deficit in the US?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 171-187.
    10. Julian GRUIN, 2013. "Asset or Liability? The Role of the Financial System in the Political Economy of China’s Rebalancing," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 42(4), pages 73-104.
    11. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    12. Yoonbai Kim & Gil Kim, 2012. "The Renminbi Debate: A Review of Issues and Search for Resolution," Chapters, in: Jehoon Park & T. J. Pempel & Geng Xiao (ed.), Asian Responses to the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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