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Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach

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  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Ferrer, Román
  • Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations in the world (China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States) using the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach and a new index of tourism activity that combines the most commonly used tourism indicators. This methodology, recently introduced by Sim and Zhou (2015), provides an ideal framework with which to capture the overall dependence structure between tourism development and economic growth. The empirical results primarily show a positive relation between tourism and economic growth for the ten countries considered with substantial variations across countries and across quantiles within each country. The weakest links are noted for China and Germany, possibly because of the limited importance of the tourism sector relative to other major economic activities in those countries. Important country-specific policy implications may be drawn from these findings.

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  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:223-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2016.12.006
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517716302552
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    Cited by:

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    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    4. Jesús Iglesias & Manuel E Gegundez & Antonio A Golpe & José Carlos Vides, 2018. "How do foreign income shocks affect the magnitude of Spanish tourism?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 839-871, November.
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    6. Jamil Shah & Zilakat Khan Malik & Umar Hayat, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-Integration Approach," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-14.
    7. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Muhammad Irfan & Munir Ahmad & Ousmane Traore, 2020. "Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    8. Biagio SIMONETTI & Ayhan KAPUSUZOGLU & Nildag Basak CEYLAN, 2019. "The Causality Among Tourism Related Factors And Gdp For Eu Members," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 18(2), pages 3-9.
    9. Osinubi, Tolulope Temilola & Osinubi , Olufemi Bankole, 2020. "Inclusive Growth in Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    10. Liu, Anyu & Wu, Doris Chenguang, 2019. "Tourism productivity and economic growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 253-265.
    11. Waheed, Rida & Sarwar, Suleman & Dignah, Ashwaq, 2020. "The role of non-oil exports, tourism and renewable energy to achieve sustainable economic growth: What we learn from the experience of Saudi Arabia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 49-58.
    12. Waheed Ahmad & Tariq Majeed & Zubaria Andlib, 2020. "Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Five South Asian Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-59, March.
    13. Nduka, Eleanya K., 2018. "Modeling the Long-Run Relationship Between Exchange Rate-Tourism Pass-Through and Growth: The Case of Nigeria?," MPRA Paper 86584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ertugrul, Hasan Murat & Mangir, Fatih, 2012. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 96419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jun Zhang & Li Cheng, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    16. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Román Ferrer, 2020. "Dynamic spillover effects among tourism, economic growth and macro-finance risk factors," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 173-194, September.
    17. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2020. "Modelling tourism receipts and associated risks, using long-range dependence models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 70-96, February.
    18. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    19. Hira Arain & Liyan Han & Arshian Sharif & Muhammad Saeed Meo, 2020. "Investigating the effect of inbound tourism on FDI: The importance of quantile estimations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 682-703, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; Economic growth; Tourism-led growth hypothesis; Real GDP per capita; Quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach;
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    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics

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