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Does Tourism Predict Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries?

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

    ()

    (Deakin University)

  • Susan S Sharma

    ()

    (Deakin University)

  • Deepa Bannigidadmath

    (Deakin University)

In this paper we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs—one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.

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File URL: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/workingpapers/fin-econometrics/2013_03.pdf
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Paper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Financial Econometics Series with number 2013_03.

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Length: 27
Date of creation:
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Publication status: Published
Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2013_03
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Web page: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/index.php

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  1. Francesco Pigliaru & Rinaldo Brau & Alessandro Lanza, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourist Countries Growing? The 1980-2003 Evidence," Working Papers 2007.1, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1993. "Endogenous, Innovation in the Theory of Growth," Papers 165, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  3. Po, Wan-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2008. "Tourism development and economic growth–a nonlinear approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5535-5542.
  4. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  5. Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-92, May.
  6. Ghali, Moheb A, 1976. " Tourism and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 527-38, April.
  7. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Badassa Tadasse, 2007. "The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa," Working Papers 200716, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
  8. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
  10. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
  11. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
  12. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuela Pulina & Carme Riera i Prunera & Manuel Artís, 2009. "Tourism and Exports as a means of Growth," IREA Working Papers 200910, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2009.
  13. Pablo A. Acosta & Emmanuel K.K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman, 2007. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Working Paper 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:21:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Hazari, Bharat R. & A-Ng, 1993. "An analysis of tourists' consumption of non-traded goods and services on the welfare of the domestic consumers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 43-58.
  18. Pareshk. Narayan, 2007. "Testing Convergence Of Fiji'S Tourism Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-663, December.
  19. M. Thea Sinclair, 1998. "Tourism and economic development: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 1-51.
  20. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2001. "Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 681-685.
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