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Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?

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  • Narayan, P. K.
  • Sharma, S.
  • Bannigidadmath, D.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs — one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.
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  • Narayan, P. K. & Sharma, S. & Bannigidadmath, D., 2013. "Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?," Working Papers fe_2013_03, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2013_03
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.018
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    Cited by:

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    2. De Bruyn C & Meyer N & Meyer D.F, 2018. "Assessing the Dynamic Economic Impact of Tourism in a Developing Region in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 274-283.
    3. Sangwon Lee & Soomin Joo & Jinyoung Park & Yoonjae Nam, 2022. "ICT Infrastructure, OTT Market Growth, Economic Freedom, and International Tourism: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-12, September.
    4. repec:thr:techub:10020:y:2021:i:1:p:751-771 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Terence Tai‐Leung Chong & Alex Wing‐Ho Yiu, 2019. "Nexus between visitor arrivals and residential property rents in Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 464-478, August.
    6. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    7. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2016. "Can consumer price index predict gold price returns?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 269-278.
    8. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Monash Economics Working Papers 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2015. "The relation between fees and return predictability in the mutual fund industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 260-270.
    10. Ngozi Helen Oguchi & Fen Luo, 2021. "Estimating the Nexus of Tourism on Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 20(1), pages 751-771, June.
    11. Zdravko Sergo, 2019. "Inter-Generational Employment Spillovers From Tourism Across The Eu," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(1), pages 97-125, june.

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    Keywords

    Tourism; Macroeconomic variables; GDP; Money Supply; Panel Data; Predictive Regression Model;
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