Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy
The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become the major focus of some recent studies in tourism economics. Results obtained in these studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analyzed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use the rolling window and time-varying coefficients estimation methods to analyze the Granger causality based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). When applied to Turkey for the 1963-2006 periods, this methodology enables us to overcome differences in the outcome of the tests performed in other studies for tourism receipts and GDP. The findings of this paper are as follows: results from the full sample within the VECM model indicate that there is no Granger causality between the series, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space model and rolling window technique show that GDP has no predictive power for tourism receipts; however, tourism receipts have a positive-predictive content for GDP following early 1980s.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Assessing the Casual Relationship between Euro-Area Money and Price in Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002.
"Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2010. "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 91-103, February.
- Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ansley, Craig F. & Newbold, Paul, 1980. "Finite sample properties of estimators for autoregressive moving average models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183, June.
- Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
- Morten O. Ravn & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2005.
"Markov switching causality and the money-output relationship,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 665-683.
- Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
- Hakan Berument & Nergiz Din er, 2005.
"The Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Economic Performance : The Turkish Experience,"
0513, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
- Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2429-2441.
- Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
- Hakan Berument & Asli GŸnay, 2001.
"Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate : A Case Study for Turkey,"
0110, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
- Hakan Berument & Asli Günay, 2003. "Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 19-27, January.
- Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
- Dent, Warren & Min, An-Sik, 1978. "A Monte Carlo study of autoregressive integrated moving average processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-55, February.
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001.
"Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, December.
- Tom Doan, . "SEASONALDLM: RATS procedure to create the matrices for the seasonal component of a DLM," Statistical Software Components RTS00251, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kasman, Adnan & Ayhan, Duygu, 2008. "Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 83-92, January.
- Hazari, Bharat R. & A-Ng, 1993. "An analysis of tourists' consumption of non-traded goods and services on the welfare of the domestic consumers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 43-58.
- Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Modeste, Nelson C., 1995. "The Impact of Growth in the Tourism Sector on Economic Development: The Experience of Selected Caribbean Countries," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 48(3), pages 375-385.
- Yilmazkuday, Hakan & Akay, Koray, 2008. "An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 885-898, September.
- Balassa, Bela, 1988. "The Lessons of East Asian Development: An Overview," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(3), pages S273-90, Supplemen.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:664-671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.