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Engines of tourism's growth: An examination of efficacy of shift-share regression analysis in South Carolina


  • Dogru, Tarik
  • Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan


This study investigates the efficacy of the shift-share regression analysis in examining the tourism industry's performance in a region. Tourism employment figures in the state of South Carolina are used to model and compute the change of employment in SC using shift-share regression and classical shift-share analysis (SSA). These methods yield significantly different results challenging the reliability of the non-statistical methods used in much of the relevant literature. The results from the shift-share regression analysis illustrate that the contribution of the tourism industry in SC to the tourism industry in the U.S. and to overall U.S. economy has decreased over the years. Contrary to the expectations, SC as tourism dependent State is not specialized in the tourism industry and demonstrate competitive disadvantage. While other industries appear to contribute more to the SC economy than the State's tourism industry, proper development policies and strategies could help capitalize on State's tourism potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Dogru, Tarik & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan, 2017. "Engines of tourism's growth: An examination of efficacy of shift-share regression analysis in South Carolina," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 205-214.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:58:y:2017:i:c:p:205-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2016.10.021

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
    2. Shaoming Cheng, 2011. "Business cycle, industrial composition, or regional advantage? A decomposition analysis of new firm formation in the United States," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 147-167, August.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    4. J A Kurre & B R Weller, 1989. "Forecasting the Local Economy, Using Time-Series and Shift—Share Techniques," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 21(6), pages 753-770, June.
    5. Knudsen, Daniel C., 2000. "Shift-share analysis: further examination of models for the description of economic change," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 177-198, September.
    6. Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
    7. J A Kurre & B R Weller, 1989. "Forecasting the local economy, using time-series and shift - share techniques," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 21(6), pages 753-770, June.
    8. Wayne C. Curtis, 1972. "Shift-Share Analysis as a Technique in Rural Development Research," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(2), pages 267-270.
    9. Roger J. Beck & William McD. Herr, 1990. "Employment Linkages from a Modified Shift-Share Analysis: An Illinois Example," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 20(3), pages 38-45, Fall.
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