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The Shift-Share Regression: An Application to Regional Employ-ment Development

Author

Listed:
  • Uwe Blien

    ()

  • Lutz Eigenhueller
  • Markus Promberger
  • Norbert Schanne

Abstract

This paper presents an outline of the so-called Shift-Share Regression and an application of this method to the analysis of employment development. The method used is not a deterministic decomposition such as the classical Shift-Share-Analysis, but a powerful, yet simple and flexible econometric tool to test theory-related hypotheses, which can be applied as a 'work-horse' in studies of many kinds. Classical deterministic Shift-Share-Analysis has often been criticised, since it does not permit a model-based analysis. The detection of causal effects is at least problematic and the inclusion of additional explanatory variables is possible only in special cases. A major problem is the nature of the method as a deterministic procedure which excludes significance tests. Shift-Share Regression is able to overcome all these critical points. In a basic version it was introduced by Patterson (1991) as a method for analysing and testing regional industrial developments. In contrary to the deterministic Shift-Share-Analysis employment development was examined in a linear model. In Patterson's analysis the industrial sector structure was used as the sole determining factor alongside the location effects and the national trend. We extend this basic structure further: In our case, the effects of sectoral structures, establishment size, qualification structures and locational determinants on employment growth are studied. The regional units used are districts of Western Germany ('Landkreise' and 'kreisfreie Städte'), especially in the present context the districts of the federal State of Bavaria. The analysis is motivated by theoretical considerations of different sources. The most important one refers to theoretical analyses of structural change. According to a specific theorem, the employment effect of technological progress depends on the elasticity of product demand. If demand is inelastic the direct labour saving effect of technological progress is dominating and the effect is negative. Then it is profitable for a firm to reduce its labour force. If, however, demand is elastic a compensating effect dominates. In this case price decreases following higher productivity lead to an extension of product demand which (over-)com¬pensates the direct labour saving effect. Then, it is profitable for a firm to increase the size of its labour force. It can be assumed that in different industries of an economy different demand elasticities are dominating. Therefore, an empirical analysis of employment effects should focus on the industries of an economy. In the paper the sources of different regional employment development in Bavaria are presented, analysed by Shift-Share Regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Uwe Blien & Lutz Eigenhueller & Markus Promberger & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "The Shift-Share Regression: An Application to Regional Employ-ment Development," ERSA conference papers ersa13p614, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa13p614
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    File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa13/ERSA2013_paper_00614.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shu-hen Chiang, 2012. "Shift-share analysis and international trade," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 571-588, December.
    2. Ulrich Zierahn, 2012. "The importance of spatial autocorrelation for regional employment growth in Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 32(1), pages 19-43, March.
    3. Blien, Uwe & Suedekum, Jens & Wolf, Katja, 2006. "Local employment growth in West Germany: A dynamic panel approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 445-458, August.
    4. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    5. Blien, Uwe & Sanner, Helge, 2006. "Structural change and regional employment dynamics," IAB Discussion Paper 200606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
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    12. Jens Suedekum & Uwe Blien, 2007. "Stimulating Employment Growth with Higher Wages? A New Approach to Addressing an Old Controversy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 441-464, August.
    13. Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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