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Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques


  • Blien, Uwe


  • Wolf, Katja



This paper examines the development of regional employment in eastern Germany. An approach introduced by Patterson and suggested by Möller/Tassinopoulos is extended for the analyses. This approach uses a generalisation of an econometric analogue of the common shift-share method, which is suggested here as a new "workhorse" for regional analyses. The results obtained with this "shift-share-regression" and with very differentiated data from the employment statistics of eastern Germany show that processes of deconcentration play a role in explaining regional disparities, since inverse localisation and positive urbanisation effects are visible. Such processes can be understood with approaches of "New Economic Geography" (based on Krugman et al.), whereas the general significance of industry-specific effects, which is also becoming clear, can be explained using approaches of structural change, following amongst others Appelbaum & Schettkat. In addition, positive impulses of the qualification structure on regional development are detectable, which can be understood by endogenous growth theory.

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  • Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," ERSA conference papers ersa02p263, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p263

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. D C Knudsen & R Barff, 1991. "Shift - share analysis as a linear model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 23(3), pages 421-431, March.
    2. Thomas Lange & Geoffrey Pugh, 1998. "The Economics of German Unification," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 794.
    3. D C Knudsen & R Barff, 1991. "Shift-Share Analysis as a Linear Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 23(3), pages 421-431, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klinger, Sabine & Wolf, Katja, 2008. "What explains changes in full-time and part-time employment in Western Germany? : a new method on an old question," IAB Discussion Paper 200807, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Kowalewski, Julia, 2012. "Inter-industrial relations and sectoral employment development in German regions," HWWI Research Papers 127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Brox, James & Carvalho, Emanuel, 2006. "An Application of the Regression Analogue of the Demographically Enhanced Shift-Share Model," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 36(2), pages 239-253.
    4. Jens Suedekum & Uwe Blien & Johannes Ludsteck, 2006. "What has caused regional employment growth differences in Eastern Germany?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 26(1), pages 51-73, March.
    5. Alm, Bastian & Bade, Franz-Josef, 2010. "Beschäftigungseffekte der regionalen Investitionsförderung. Analyse der gewerblichen Subventionen der Bund-Länder- Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur“ im Zeitraum 19," EconStor Preprints 103401, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    6. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 7-30.
    7. Edward Nissan & Shahdad Naghshpour, 2014. "Comparing U.S. regions for selected economic and financial variables," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 528-540, July.
    8. repec:elg:eechap:14395_4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz, 2017. "Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 469-490, May.
    10. Rafael Boix & Joan Trullén, 2004. "Knowledge, networks of cities and growth in regional urban systems: theory, measurement and policy implications," ERSA conference papers ersa04p85, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Ulrich Zierahn, 2012. "The importance of spatial autocorrelation for regional employment growth in Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 32(1), pages 19-43, March.
    12. Holtemöller, Oliver & Irrek, Maike & Schultz, Birgit, 2012. "A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Yuanhua Feng & Zhichao Guo & Christian Peitz, 2014. "A Tree-form Constant Market Share Model for Growth Causes in International Trade Based on Multi-level Classification," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 207-228, June.
    14. Kowalewski Julia, 2013. "Inter-industrial Relations and Sectoral Employment Development in German Regions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(4), pages 486-504, August.
    15. Valente J. Matlaba & Mark Holmes & Philip McCann & Jacques Poot, 2012. "Classic and Spatial Shift-Share Analysis of State-Level Employment Change in Brazil," Working Papers in Economics 12/08, University of Waikato.
    16. Lourens Broersma & Jan Oosterhaven, 2005. "Regional Labour Productivity in The Netherlands - Diversification and Agglomeration Economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p31, European Regional Science Association.
    17. František Střeleček & Radek Zdeněk & Jana Lososová, 2010. "Vývoj zaměstnanosti v znevýhodněných oblastech v letech 2002-2006
      [Development of Employment in Less Favoured Areas in 2002-2006]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(6), pages 761-773.
    18. repec:eee:touman:v:58:y:2017:i:c:p:205-214 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Suedekum, Jens & Blien, Uwe, 2004. "Wages and Employment Growth: Disaggregated Evidence for West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1128, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    20. Vadim Grinevich, 2013. "Region-specific productivity competitiveness and the universityindustry interface," Chapters,in: Knowledge Commercialization and Valorization in Regional Economic Development, chapter 9, pages 184-208 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Uwe Blien & Lutz Eigenhueller & Markus Promberger & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "The Shift-Share Regression: An Application to Regional Employ-ment Development," ERSA conference papers ersa13p614, European Regional Science Association.
    22. Kingsley E. Haynes & Jitendra Parajuli, 2014. "Shift-share analysis: decomposition of spatially integrated systems," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Spatially Integrated Social Science, chapter 16, pages 315-344 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Kowalewski, Julia, 2010. "Specialisation and employment development in Germany: Analysis at regional level," HWWI Research Papers 1-28, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    24. Lourens Broersma & Jan Oosterhaven, 2009. "Regional Labor Productivity In The Netherlands: Evidence Of Agglomeration And Congestion Effects," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 483-511.
    25. James Giesecke & John Madden, 2010. "Uncovering the Factors behind Comparative Regional Economic Performance: A Multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1329-1349.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • J49 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Other


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