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Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments

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  • Matthias Firgo

    () (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Oliver Fritz

    () (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

Abstract

Abstract This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the tourist appeal of individual regions rather than a result of more or less favorable structures of visitors. Second, none of several mega-events during the period observed seem to have left prolonged positive effects on the tourist performance of the host regions. And third, performance appears uncorrelated with tourism intensity of a region. Thus, from a policy and destination management perspective, tourism authorities and local suppliers should mainly focus on upgrading the permanent destination attractiveness rather than investing too much effort into landing mega-events or targeting the visitor mix toward promising source markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz, 2017. "Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 469-490, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:58:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00168-016-0803-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-016-0803-4
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • M30 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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