IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwhdps/iwh-11-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Irrek, Maike
  • Schultz, Birgit

Abstract

Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Irrek, Maike & Schultz, Birgit, 2012. "A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-11-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/69609/1/73271026X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Ludwig, Udo, 2007. "Mittel- und langfristige Wachstumsprojektionen für Ostdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 13(6), pages 210-218.
    4. Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
    5. repec:zbw:iwhwiw:7-10-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    7. repec:eee:joecag:v:7:y:2016:i:c:p:30-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    9. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    10. Buck, T W & Atkins, M H, 1976. "The Impact of British Regional Policies on Employment Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 118-132, March.
    11. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2016. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 30-42.
    12. Schneider, Lutz, 2011. "Alterung und Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Untersuchung zum Einfluss des Alters von Beschäftigten auf Produktivität, Innovation und Mobilität," IWH-Sonderhefte 3/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. van Deuverden, Kristina & Freye, Sabine, 2010. "Schuldenbremse: Bisherige Beschlüsse stellen Gelingen auf Länderebene infrage," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(9), pages 438-447.
    14. Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
    15. Sabine Klinger & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Disentangling sector and status effects in German employment growth," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1257-1278, September.
    16. Harry W. Richardson, 1978. "The State of Regional Economics: A Survey Article," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 3(1), pages 1-48, October.
    17. Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Regional productivity and income convergence in the unified Germany, 1992-2000," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 755-767.
    18. Scheufele, Rolf & Ludwig, Udo, 2009. "Der lange Weg der Konvergenz," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(10), pages 400-407.
    19. Irrek, Maike, 2010. "Humankapital im Ost-West-Vergleich: Leichtes Aufholen in den Neuen Bundesländern," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(7), pages 337-344.
    20. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    21. Scheufele, Rolf, 2008. "Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2008, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional long-run projection; convergence; demographic change; regionale Wachstumsprojektion; ökonomische Konvergenz; demographischer Wandel;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-11-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iwhhhde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.