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The Validity of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Thailand

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  • Jiranyakul, Komain

Abstract

This paper explores the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Thailand using quarterly data during 1995 and 2014. The results from the analysis show that the relationship between tourism receipts and real GDP is nonlinear without asymmetric adjustment. The nonlinearity in this relationship is found from the results of threshold cointegration tests. The causality analysis indicates no causality running from tourism receipts to real GDP in both the long run and the short run. The finding in this paper gives some policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "The Validity of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Thailand," MPRA Paper 72716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72716
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72806/1/MPRA_paper_72806.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    2. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    3. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    4. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:21:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 31-53.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Fiorella Pizzolon, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 879-894.
    9. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism receipts; economic growth; threshold cointegration; causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General

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