IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-114.html

Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Dalia S Hakura

Abstract

This paper establishes that output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across all countries over the past three decades, but remain considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to result from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970-2003 period suggest that discretionary fiscal spending volatility, and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility are key determinants of volatility and large output drops.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Dalia S Hakura, 2007. "Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/114, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20940
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. M. Tariq Majeed & Ayesha Noreen, 2018. "Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 97-141, Jan-June.
    3. Zouhair Aït Benhamou, 2016. "Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: Regional and Global Factors," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 1601, Policy Center for the New South.
    4. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Regional Employment Volatility In Turkey: Causes And Consequences," Working Papers 2015/06, Turkish Economic Association.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mahalia Jackman, 2014. "Output Volatility and Tourism Specialization in Small Island Developing States," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(3), pages 527-544, June.
    9. -, 2007. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2006-2007," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1065 edited by Eclac, September.
    10. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    11. Ms. Dalia S Hakura & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 2009/091, International Monetary Fund.
    12. repec:ecr:col037:5425 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Aygun Garayeva & Gulzar Tahirova, 2017. "Government Spending Effectiveness and the Quality of Fiscal Institutions," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 2, pages 128-143.
    3. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Determinants of Public Deficit Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 11/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Søren Ravn & Morten Spange, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 451-476, July.
    5. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2006. "Does It Cost to Be Virtuous? The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Constraints," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 327-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Umana-Aponte, Marcela, 2010. "The Dynamics of Women's Labour Supply in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 4879, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    9. Noel Rapa & Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "The macroeconomic effects of closing the public sector capital gap in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/07/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Brüeckner,Markus & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao, 2015. "The effects of volatility, fiscal policy cyclicality and financial development on growth : evidence for the Eastern Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7507, The World Bank.
    11. Igor Goncharov & Martin Jacob, 2014. "Why Do Countries Mandate Accrual Accounting for Tax Purposes?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 52(5), pages 1127-1163, December.
    12. repec:uii:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:23-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fiorenza Venturini, 2018. "The Unintended Composition Effect of the Subnational Government Fiscal Rules: The Case of Italian Municipalities," Working papers 70, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    14. Samuele Murtinu & Giulio Piccirilli & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Government Polarization, and the Economic Literacy of Voters," Working papers 50, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    15. Mr. Alexander D Klemm, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/059, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    17. Beata Guziejewska, 2007. "Subwencje i dotacje dla samorządu terytorialnego w polityce finansowej państwa," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 71-89.
    18. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Politiques macroéconomiques et stabilisation des chocs dans la zone UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00830595, HAL.
    20. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    21. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Policies and Outcomes in the World," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2 Year 20), pages 161-187, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.