IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04141608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fluctuations in emerging economies: regional and global factors

Author

Listed:
  • Zouhair Aït Benhamou

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Discrepancies in output fluctuations between emerging and developed economies are welldocumented in the literature. Differences however within developing economies have not been sufficiently scrutinised. This paper argues that global and regional shocks primarily drive the business cycle in emerging economies, and provides estimated results for cycle variance decomposition. The paper also offers a theoretical framework to check on the set of stylised facts common and specific to emerging economies. It finds that the proposed model is robust in accounting for region-specific features.

Suggested Citation

  • Zouhair Aït Benhamou, 2016. "Fluctuations in emerging economies: regional and global factors," Working Papers hal-04141608, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141608
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04141608/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klapper, Leora F. & Love, Inessa, 2004. "Corporate governance, investor protection, and performance in emerging markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 703-728, November.
    2. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    4. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    5. Leamer, Edward E, 1980. "The Leontief Paradox, Reconsidered," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 495-503, June.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-1161, December.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
    8. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    9. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    10. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    11. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    12. Mr. Andrew M. Warner, 2014. "Public Investment as an Engine of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2014/148, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jeffery Racine & Jeffrey Hart & Qi Li, 2006. "Testing the Significance of Categorical Predictor Variables in Nonparametric Regression Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 523-544.
    14. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    16. Leamer, E.E., 1995. "The Heckscher-Ohlin Model in Theory and Practice," Princeton Studies in International Economics 77, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    19. Racine, Jeff, 1997. "Consistent Significance Testing for Nonparametric Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 369-378, July.
    20. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    21. Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "Taxation and the Size and Composition of the Capital Stock: An Asset Price Approach," NBER Working Papers 1709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    23. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    24. Ms. Dalia S Hakura, 2007. "Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/114, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zouhair Aït Benhamou, 2016. "Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: Regional and Global Factors," Research papers & Policy papers 1601, Policy Center for the New South.
    2. Zouhair Ait Benhamou, 2016. "Fluctuations in emerging economies: regional and global factors," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
    4. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    5. Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Friction," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009.
    6. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Enrique Martínez García, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization Institute Working Papers 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    9. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
    11. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "Time to produce and emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 37-52.
    13. Clemens Struck & Adnan Velic, 2016. "Competing Gains From Trade," Trinity Economics Papers tep1116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2018.
    14. Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Terms of Trade and Total Factor Productivity: Empirical evidence from Latin American emerging markets," Working Papers 2014-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    16. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    17. Ghironi, Fabio, 2008. "The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1780-1811, June.
    18. Mario Crucini, 2012. "Comparing General and Partial Equilibrium Approaches to the Study of Real Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 1057, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    20. Roberto Duncan, 2015. "Simple Models to Understand and Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Working Papers 49, Peruvian Economic Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.