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Trend shocks and economic development

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  • Naoussi, Claude Francis
  • Tripier, Fabien

Abstract

This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in developing countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007). We specify a small open economy model with transitory and trend shocks on productivity to replicate the differences in the business cycle behavior observed between developed, emerging, and Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Our results suggest a strong relationship between the weight of trend shocks in the source of fluctuations and the level of economic development. The weight of trend shocks is (i) higher in Sub-Saharan Africa countries than in emerging and developed countries, (ii) negatively correlated with the level of income, the quality of institutions, and the size of the credit market, and (iii) uncorrelated with the volatility of aid received by countries, the inflation rate, and the trend in trade-openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:103:y:2013:i:c:p:29-42 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.01.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Financial Inclusion, Productivity Shocks, and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(1), pages 171-201.
    2. Daniel Baksa & Istvan Konya, 2017. "Interest premium and economic growth: the case of CEE," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1712, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    3. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2017. "Business Cycles In Small Open Economies: Evidence From Panel Data Between 1900 And 2013," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 1007-1044, August.
    4. Chen, Changsheng & Girardin, Eric & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2017. "Global slack and open economy Phillips curves – A province-level view from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 74-87.
    5. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    6. Joel M. David & Espen Henriksen & Ina Simonovska, 2014. "The Risky Capital of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 20769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kónya, István & Baksa, Dániel, 2017. "Növekedés és pénzügyi környezet
      [Growth and the financial environment]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-376.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Permanent shocks; Growth; Africa; Small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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