IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/has/discpr/1916.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Convergence, productivity and debt: the case of Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Baksa

    (Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund and Central European University)

  • Istvan Konya

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, and University of Pécs and Central European University)

Abstract

We study the role of productivity convergence and financial conditions in the recent growth experience of Hungary. We build a stochastic, small-open economy growth model with productivity convergence, capital accumulation and external borrowing. Using empirically identified processes for productivity and the external interest premium, we simulate the effects of two unexpected, permanent changes on Hungarian growth. The first change is the sharp productivity slowdown starting in 2006, and the second is the tightening of external financial conditions starting in 2009. Simulating our model, we show that the empirically identified productivity and interest premium processes - along with the two unexpected permanent changes and regular i.i.d. productivity and interest premium innovations – capture the main medium-run dynamics of the Hungarian economy both before and after the global financial crisis. Running counterfactuals, we also find that the observed slowdown in GDP per capita growth was mostly driven by productivity, while the tightening of external financing conditions is important to understand investment behavior and the net foreign asset position.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Baksa & Istvan Konya, 2019. "Convergence, productivity and debt: the case of Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1916, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1916
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mtakti.hu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MTDP1916.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gagnon, Joseph E, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Deterministic Extended Path," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 35-36, January.
    2. Taştan, Hüseyin, 2013. "Real business cycles in emerging economies: Turkish case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 106-113.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    4. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    5. Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
    6. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    7. Natalia Levenko & Kaspar Oja & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Total factor productivity growth in Central and Eastern Europe before, during and after the global financial crisis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 137-160, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Bilal Ahsin & Jerome Kueh & Muhammad Asraf bin Abdullah, 2021. "Impact of Economic Integration and Information and Communication Technology on Economic Growth for European Union: Dynamic Panel GMM Approach," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kónya, István & Baksa, Dániel, 2017. "Növekedés és pénzügyi környezet [Growth and the financial environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-376.
    2. Dániel Baksa & István Kónya, 2021. "Convergence stories of post‐socialist Central‐Eastern European countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(3), pages 239-258, June.
    3. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    4. Kjetil Storesletten & Bo Zhao & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2019. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 26181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.
    6. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    7. Elena Afanasyeva & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Lending Standards, Credit Booms and Monetary Policy," Economics working papers 2014-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    8. Casares, Miguel, 2006. "Time-to-build, monetary shocks, and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1161-1176, September.
    9. Bah, El-hadj & Fang, Lei, 2016. "Entry Costs, Financial Frictions, And Cross-Country Differences In Income And Tfp," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 884-908, June.
    10. Mathä, Thomas Y. & Pierrard, Olivier, 2011. "Search in the product market and the real business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1172-1191, August.
    11. Martínez-García, Enrique & Søndergaard, Jens, 2013. "Investment And Real Exchange Rates In Sticky Price Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 195-234, March.
    12. Robert Amano & Kevin Moran & Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2007. "Trend Inflation, Wage and Price Rigidities, and Welfare," Staff Working Papers 07-42, Bank of Canada.
    13. Burda, Michael C. & Severgnini, Battista, 2014. "Solow residuals without capital stocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 154-171.
    14. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
    15. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger, 2012. "Markups and fiscal transmission in a panel of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 674-686.
    17. Fernando del Río, 2019. "Property Rights, Predation, and Productivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 1154-1188, July.
    18. Diego A. Comin & Mikhail Dmitriev & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2012. "The Spatial Diffusion of Technology," NBER Working Papers 18534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Yu, Po-yang & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2022. "Endogenous innovation scale and patent policy in a monetary Schumpeterian growth model," MPRA Paper 115016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; convergence; productivity; interest premium; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehashu.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nora Horvath (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehashu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.