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The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry

  • Chang, C-L.
  • Hsu, H-K.
  • McAleer, M.J.

This paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used to estimate the volatility in the stock indexes for large and small firms in Taiwan. Daily data from 30 November 2001 to 27 February 2013 are used, which covers the period of Cross-Straits tension between China and Taiwan. The full sample period is divided into two subsamples, namely prior to and after the policy reform that encouraged Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The empirical findings confirm that there have been important changes in the volatility size effects for firm performance, regardless of firm size and estimation period. Furthermore, the risk premium reveals insignificant estimates in both time periods, while asymmetric effects are found to exist only for large firms after the policy reform. The empirical findings should be useful for financial managers and policy analysts as it provides insight into the magnitude of the volatility size effects for firm performance, how it can vary with firm size, the impacts arising from the industry policy reform, and how firm size is related to financial risk management strategy.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/41465/EI2013-26.pdf
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2013-26.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:41465
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  1. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Risk management and financial derivatives: An overview," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-115.
  2. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Is small beautiful? Size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates in tourism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 519-534.
  3. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
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  6. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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  8. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
  9. Mehran, Hamid, 1995. "Executive compensation structure, ownership, and firm performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-184, June.
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  12. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2009. "A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-685, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  13. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Working Papers in Economics 10/13, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  14. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  15. Chia-Lin Chang & Biing-Wen Huang & Meng-Gu Chen & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan: The Impact of Joining the WTO," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-642, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  16. Kato, Kiyoshi & Schallheim, James S., 1985. "Seasonal and Size Anomalies in the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 243-260, June.
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  18. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  19. Michael McAleer & Christian M. Hafner, 2014. "A One Line Derivation of EGARCH," Working Papers in Economics 14/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  20. Tufano, Peter, 1996. " Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
  21. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
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  24. repec:dgr:uvatin:20130008 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. repec:dgr:uvatin:2013008 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Gabriel Hawawini & Venkat Subramanian & Paul Verdin, 2003. "Is performance driven by industry or firm-specific factors? A new look at the evidence," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14188, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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