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The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry

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  • Chang, C-L.
  • Hsu, H-K.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

This paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used to estimate the volatility in the stock indexes for large and small firms in Taiwan. Daily data from 30 November 2001 to 27 February 2013 are used, which covers the period of Cross-Straits tension between China and Taiwan. The full sample period is divided into two subsamples, namely prior to and after the policy reform that encouraged Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The empirical findings confirm that there have been important changes in the volatility size effects for firm performance, regardless of firm size and estimation period. Furthermore, the risk premium reveals insignificant estimates in both time periods, while asymmetric effects are found to exist only for large firms after the policy reform. The empirical findings should be useful for financial managers and policy analysts as it provides insight into the magnitude of the volatility size effects for firm performance, how it can vary with firm size, the impacts arising from the industry policy reform, and how firm size is related to financial risk management strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, C-L. & Hsu, H-K. & McAleer, M.J., 2013. "The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-26, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:41465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, De-Chih & Liu, Chih-Yun, 2016. "The source of stock return fluctuation in Taiwan," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-88.
    2. Michael McAleer, 2015. "The Fundamental Equation in Tourism Finance," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(4), pages 1-6, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetry; conditional volatility models; firm size; stock returns; tourism; tourism policy reforms; volatility size effects;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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