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Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU

This study analyses the dynamic effects of specific macroeconomic variables, i.e. housing loan rates, inflation, employment, and money supply, on the price of new houses sold in Greece. An error correction vector autoregressive (ECVAR) model is used in modelling the impact of the above macroeconomic variables on housing price. The results obtained through impulse response functions suggest that housing prices respond to all macroeconomic variables under consideration. Variance decompositions show that the housing loan rate is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing price, followed by inflation and employment, while money supply does not seem to show any substantial impact.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 799-804

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:12:p:799-804
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  1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  2. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  3. Manchester, Joyce, 1987. "Inflation and housing demand: A new perspective," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-125, January.
  4. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-97, September.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Muellbauer, John, 1992. "Anglo-German differences in housing market dynamics : The role of institutions and macro economic policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 539-548, April.
  8. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
  9. Schwab, Robert M., 1983. "Real and nominal interest rates and the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 181-195, March.
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