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Explaining house price changes in Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Gounopoulos
  • Andreas G. Merikas
  • Anna A. Merika
  • Anna Triantafyllou

Abstract

This article develops an equilibrium model for the Greek housing market that incorporates both macroeconomic and country-specific variables that affect demand for and supply of houses. In the overall upward phase of the 26-year period examined (1985Q1--2010Q4), our investigation of short-term fluctuations in real house prices and stock prices confirms the inverse relationship between movements in the housing price index and the stock exchange general index, identifies the direction of causality as running from the financial sector to the real sector and finds that, following an exogenous shock, reversion to the long-run equilibrium is a rather slow process. Furthermore, we identify a fundamental shift in the behaviour of Greek homeowners, who appear to be moving away from the treatment of housing as consumption good, towards treating house purchases as investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Andreas G. Merikas & Anna A. Merika & Anna Triantafyllou, 2012. "Explaining house price changes in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 549-561, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:7:p:549-561
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.619494
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09603107.2011.619494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    2. Giles, David E A, 1999. "Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 370-380, June.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    4. Eva Sierminska & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2007. "Disentangling the wealth effect: some international evidence," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan19.
    5. G. Geoffrey Booth & Gregory Koutmos, 1998. "Interaction of volatility and autocorrelation in foreign stock returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 715-717.
    6. Karl E. Case, 2008. "The Central Role of Home Prices in the Current Financial Crisis: How Will the Market Clear?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 161-193.
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    Cited by:

    1. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    2. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    3. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González, 2014. "The Housing Market-Bank Credit Relationship: Some Thoughts on Its Causality," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 145-160, March.
    4. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez, 2013. "Endogenous Bank Credit and Its Link to Housing in OECD Countries," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_750, Levy Economics Institute.

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