IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v73y2018i6p2587-2633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • CHARLES G. NATHANSON
  • ERIC ZWICK

Abstract

This paper studies the role of disagreement in amplifying housing cycles. Speculation is easier in the land market than in the housing market due to frictions that make renting less efficient than owner‐occupancy. As a result, undeveloped land facilitates construction and intensifies the speculation that causes booms and busts in house prices. This observation challenges the standard intuition that in cities where construction is easier, house price booms are smaller. It can also explain why the largest house price booms in the United States between 2000 and 2006 occurred in areas with elastic housing supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2018. "Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2587-2633, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:73:y:2018:i:6:p:2587-2633
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12719
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jofi.12719?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cinta Borrero-Domínguez & Encarnación Cordón-Lagares & Rocío Hernández-Garrido, 2020. "Sustainability and Real Estate Crowdfunding: Success Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Xing Su & Zhu Qian, 2020. "State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Møller, Stig & Pedersen, Thomas & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes & Timmermann, Allan, 2021. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 15875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Adam Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "What Do We Learn from Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 175-223.
    5. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    6. Simsek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André Anundsen, 2019. "Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms," Working Paper 2019/8, Norges Bank.
    9. Han, Bing & Han, Lu & Zhou, Zhengyi, 2020. "Housing Market and Entrepreneurship: Micro Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 102597, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Aug 2020.
    10. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
    11. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    12. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, . "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Christopher L. Foote & Lara Loewenstein & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Technological Innovation in Mortgage Underwriting and the Growth in Credit: 1985-2015," Working Papers (Old Series) 1816, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Ma, Xutao & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Hu Meiting & Dong Jichang & Yin Lijun & Li Xiuting & Meng Chun, 2021. "A Study on the Relationship Between Land Finance and Housing Price in Urbanization Process: An Empirical Analysis of 182 Cities in China Based on Threshold Panel Models," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94, February.
    16. Cheol Eun & Lingling Wang & Tim Zhang, 2022. "House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 675-710, November.
    17. Botsch, Matthew J. & Malmendier, Ulrike M., 2020. "The Long Shadows of the Great Inflation: Evidence from Residential Mortgages," CEPR Discussion Papers 14934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:73:y:2018:i:6:p:2587-2633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.