IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v134y2022ics0378426621002818.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Xutao
  • Zhang, Zhen

Abstract

Using a SVAR model with sign and zero restrictions, we propose a novel scheme to identify expectation, credit supply and mortgage rate shocks with the aim of exploring their role in the 2000s housing boom-bust cycles. Overall, credit supply and mortgage rate shocks are two major drivers of housing fluctuations instead of expectation shock. However, the relative importance of the three shocks varies considerably over different episodes. Specifically, gradual rise in house prices during 1999-2002 is mainly due to appreciation expectations. Such conclusion is reversed over boom-bust cycles. Compared with less than 10% contribution of expectation shock, credit supply and mortgage rate shocks become the two most important drivers of housing boom, with 20% and 24.5% contribution, respectively. In the bust, 20.2% and 23.1% of decline in house prices are associated with credit supply and mortgage rate shocks, respectively, while only 7.4% can be attributed to expectation shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Xutao & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621002818
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621002818
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106330?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    2. Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2018. "Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2587-2633, December.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    4. Dong, Ding & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Pengfei & Zha, Tao, 2022. "A theory of housing demand shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    6. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    8. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    9. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    10. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    11. Tim Landvoigt & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "The Housing Market(s) of San Diego," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1371-1407, April.
    12. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2009. "Momentum traders in a search model of the housing market," 2009 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 255-296, March.
    14. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    15. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    16. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-411, May.
    17. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
    18. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    19. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2017. "An extrapolative model of house price dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 147-170.
    20. Alex Chinco & Christopher Mayer, 2016. "Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 486-522.
    21. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Model of Price Swings in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2036-2072, June.
    22. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2019. "Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation," NBER Working Papers 26457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2016. "Editor's Choice Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1635-1670.
    24. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    25. Tim Landvoigt, 2017. "Housing Demand During the Boom: The Role of Expectations and Credit Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1865-1902.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daniel I. García, 2022. "Second‐home buying and the housing boom and bust," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 33-58, March.
    3. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    4. Daniel L. Tortorice, 2019. "Long-Run Expectations, Learning and the US Housing Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 497-531, October.
    5. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    7. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    8. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    9. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    11. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    13. Pascal Towbin & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2015. "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom," IMF Working Papers 2015/182, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
    16. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
    17. Roth, Markus, 2020. "Partial pooling with cross-country priors: An application to house price shocks," Discussion Papers 06/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Josue Cox & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2021. "Drivers of the great housing boom‐bust: Credit conditions, beliefs, or both?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 843-875, September.
    19. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
    20. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Credit supply; Mortgage rate; Expectations; SVAR; Sign and zero restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621002818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.