IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/safewp/306360.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heterogeneity in expectations and house price dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Mankart, Jochen
  • Quintana, Jorge
  • Wiederholt, Mirko

Abstract

Expectations are central for housing decisions and heterogeneity in expectations is a robust feature of survey data. We study the implications of heterogeneity in house price growth expectations for the level of house prices. We feed the joint empirical distributions of income, wealth and expectations into a calibrated heterogeneous agents housing model. We find that eliminating heterogeneity in house price growth expectations would raise average house prices and amplify house price fluctuations thereby reducing the fit of the model. Without heterogeneity, average house prices would be about 11 percent higher and the boom-bust cycle would be about 41 percent larger.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig, Alexander & Mankart, Jochen & Quintana, Jorge & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2024. "Heterogeneity in expectations and house price dynamics," SAFE Working Paper Series 432, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:306360
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4967237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/306360/1/1908127880.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2139/ssrn.4967237?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    2. Michael Bailey & Eduardo Dávila & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2019. "House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2403-2452.
    3. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    4. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    6. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Christopher I. & Yaron, Amir, 2004. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 609-633, April.
    7. David Berger & Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Joseph Vavra, 2018. "House Prices and Consumer Spending," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1502-1542.
    8. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    9. Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "The Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory with Measured Expectations," Working Papers hal-03878711, HAL.
    10. Mariacristina De Nardi, 2004. "Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 743-768.
    11. Andreas Fuster & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Mirko Wiederholt & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1059-1078, December.
    12. Pooya Molavi, 2019. "Macroeconomics with Learning and Misspecification: A General Theory and Applications," 2019 Meeting Papers 1584, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Krueger, Dirk, 2011. "Consumption And Saving Over The Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 725-770, November.
    14. Leo Kaas & Georgi Kocharkov & Edgar Preugschat & Nawid Siassi, 2021. "Low Homeownership in Germany—a Quantitative Exploration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 128-164.
    15. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3887-3928, November.
    17. Rob Nijskens & Melanie Lohuis, 2019. "The Housing Market in Major Dutch Cities," Springer Books, in: Rob Nijskens & Melanie Lohuis & Paul Hilbers & Willem Heeringa (ed.), Hot Property, chapter 0, pages 23-35, Springer.
    18. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    19. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    21. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    22. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-411, May.
    23. Markus Brunnermeier & Emmanuel Farhi & Ralph S J Koijen & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Sydney C Ludvigson & Hanno Lustig & Stefan Nagel & Monika Piazzesi, 2021. "Review Article: Perspectives on the Future of Asset Pricing [Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk-adjustments?]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 2126-2160.
    24. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Temporary general equilibrium theory," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922, Elsevier.
    25. Alp Simsek, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 335-369, August.
    26. Fedor Iskhakov & Thomas H. Jørgensen & John Rust & Bertel Schjerning, 2017. "The endogenous grid method for discrete‐continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 317-365, July.
    27. Alp Simsek, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," NBER Working Papers 28426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Tim Landvoigt, 2017. "Housing Demand During the Boom: The Role of Expectations and Credit Constraints," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1865-1902.
    29. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Social Networks: Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(6), pages 2224-2276.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Ludwig & Jochen Mankart & Jorge Quintana & Mirko Wiederholt & Nathanael Vellekoop, 2019. "House Price Expectations and Housing Choice," 2019 Meeting Papers 848, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    4. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
    5. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Ma, Xutao & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Matteo Benetton & Giovanni Compiani, 2024. "Investors’ Beliefs and Cryptocurrency Prices," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 197-236.
    8. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Luz, Valentin & Schauer, Victor & Viehweger, Martin, 2024. "Beyond preferences: Beliefs in sustainable investing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 584-607.
    10. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
    11. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    12. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    13. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    14. Makridis, Christos A. & Wang, Tao, 2024. "Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social networks and the macroeconomic response of consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    17. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2024. "Housing, Distribution, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 981-1020, August.
    18. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    19. Minsu Chang, 2019. "A House Without a Ring: The Role of Changing Marital Transitions for Housing Decisions," 2019 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. William D. Larson & Christos Makridis & Chad Redmer, 2021. "Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; survey expectations; house price cycles; life-cycle model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:306360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csafede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.