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House Price Expectations and Housing Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Ludwig

    (Research Center SAFE, Goethe University)

  • Jochen Mankart

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Jorge Quintana

    (SAFE and Goethe University)

  • Mirko Wiederholt

    (Sciences Po)

  • Nathanael Vellekoop

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

What is the role of heterogenous house-price expectations for boom-bust cycles in the housing market? We exploit a unique Dutch panel data set on households' house price expectations and their consumption, savings and housing choices for the period 2003-2016. This period was characterized by a pronounced boom-bust cycle in the housing market. Conditioning the sample on household heads who report non-zero house price expectations, we find that expectations closely track realized house prices. We next develop a structural life-cycle model of the Dutch housing market where we distinguish household types according to their house price expectations. We employ a calibrated model variant to test if observed variations in expectations can account for the housing boom-bust cycle. First results show that our model closely matches the observed fluctuations of the rent-to-price ratio in the data but overshoots the size of the housing boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Ludwig & Jochen Mankart & Jorge Quintana & Mirko Wiederholt & Nathanael Vellekoop, 2019. "House Price Expectations and Housing Choice," 2019 Meeting Papers 848, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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