IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc19/203516.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House Price Expectations and Housing Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Mankart, Jochen
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Wiederholt, Mirko
  • Quintana, Jorge
  • Vellekoop, Nathanael

Abstract

What is the role of heterogenous house-price expectations for boom-bust cycles in the housing market? We exploit a unique Dutch panel data set on households' house price expectations and their consumption, savings and housing choices for the period 2003-2016. This period was characterized by a pronounced boom-bust cycle in the housing market. Conditioning the sample on household heads who report non-zero house price expectations, we find that expectations closely track realized house prices. We next develop a structural life-cycle model of the Dutch housing market where we distinguish household types according to their house price expectations. We employ a calibrated model variant to test if observed variations in expectations can account for the housing boom-bust cycle. First results show that our model closely matches the observed fluctuations of the rent-to-price ratio in the data but overshoots the size of the housing boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Mankart, Jochen & Ludwig, Alexander & Wiederholt, Mirko & Quintana, Jorge & Vellekoop, Nathanael, 2019. "House Price Expectations and Housing Choice," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203516, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/203516/1/VfS-2019-pid-26335.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    2. Michael Bailey & Eduardo Dávila & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2019. "House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(6), pages 2403-2452.
    3. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Dan Andrews, 2011. "Residential Mobility and Public Policy in OECD Countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    5. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
    6. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Christopher I. & Yaron, Amir, 2004. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 609-633, April.
    7. David Berger & Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Joseph Vavra, 2018. "House Prices and Consumer Spending," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1502-1542.
    8. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    9. Mariacristina De Nardi, 2004. "Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 743-768.
    10. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Krueger, Dirk, 2011. "Consumption And Saving Over The Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 725-770, November.
    11. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    12. Jos Van Ommeren & Michiel Van Leuvensteijn, 2005. "New Evidence of the Effect of Transaction Costs on Residential Mobility," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 681-702, November.
    13. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Temporary general equilibrium theory," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922, Elsevier.
    14. Fedor Iskhakov & Thomas H. Jørgensen & John Rust & Bertel Schjerning, 2017. "The endogenous grid method for discrete‐continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 317-365, July.
    15. Tim Landvoigt, 2017. "Housing Demand During the Boom: The Role of Expectations and Credit Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1865-1902.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Karlman & Karin Kinnerud & Kasper Kragh-Sorensen, 2021. "Costly reversals of bad policies: the case of the mortgage interest deduction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 85-107, April.
    2. Ma, Xutao & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Inflation and the price of real assets," Staff Report 423, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    6. Daniel Jonas Schmidt, "undated". "Property transfer taxes, residential mobility, and welfare," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-042/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Piazzesi, Monika & Leombroni, Matteo & Rogers, Ciaran & Schneider, Martin, 2020. "Inflation and the Price of Real Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "The Role of Moving Shocks, Unemployment, and Policy in Understanding Housing Bust," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Collateral quality and house prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    11. Minsu Chang, 2019. "A House Without a Ring: The Role of Changing Marital Transitions for Housing Decisions," 2019 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
    13. Pierre Mabille, 2019. "Aggregate Precautionary Savings Motives," 2019 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Röhrs, Sigrid & Winter, Christoph, 2017. "Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-20.
    15. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Carolyn St Aubyn, 2019. "Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Income," BCAM Working Papers 1904, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    16. Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2016. "Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 132-159, April.
    17. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    18. Matthias Doepke, "undated". "Inflation as a Redistribution Shock: Effects on Aggregates and Welfare," UCLA Economics Online Papers 412, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, "undated". "Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    20. Rojas, Alejandro, 2021. "Mortgage credit growth for lower-income borrowers during the 2000s housing boom: Evidence and implications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 220-233.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; survey expectations; house price cycles; life-cycle model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.