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Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes

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  • Kuchler, Theresa

    (New York University)

  • Zafar, Basit

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price changes over the next year. In addition, higher volatility of locally experienced house prices causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we exploit within-individual variation in labor market status to estimate the effect of own experience on national labor market expectations. Personally experiencing unemployment leads respondents to be significantly more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to proxies for how informative personal experiences are, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuchler, Theresa & Zafar, Basit, 2015. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 9444, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9444
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    2. Knell, Markus & Stix, Helmut, 2020. "Perceptions of inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2019. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and a Representative Sample," CESifo Working Paper Series 7850, CESifo.
    4. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    6. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2019. "Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 26237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Silveira, Jaylson Jair da & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2021. "Can workers’ increased pessimism about the labor market conditions raise unemployment?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 125-134.
    8. Lee, Ungki & Kang, Namwoo & Lee, Ikjin, 2020. "Choice data generation using usage scenarios and discounted cash flow analysis," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    9. Luojia Hu & Xing Huang & Andrei Simonov, 2020. "Credit Score Doctors," Working Paper Series WP-2020-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Jonathan Huntley & Valentina Michelangeli & Felix Reichling, 2021. "What drives investors to chase returns?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1334, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Anagol, Santosh & Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2021. "Learning from noise: Evidence from India’s IPO lotteries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 965-986.
    12. Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2020. "Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    13. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey," Working Papers 15, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    14. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Discussion Papers 05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Gomes, Francisco J. & Haliassos, Michael & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2020. "Household finance," IMFS Working Paper Series 138, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Chernenko, Sergey & Hanson, Samuel G. & Sunderam, Adi, 2016. "Who neglects risk? Investor experience and the credit boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 248-269.
    18. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    19. Anagol, Santosh & Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2018. "Learning from Noise: Evidence from India's IPO Lotteries," CEPR Discussion Papers 13314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Shimon Kogan & Florian H. Schneider & Roberto A. Weber, 2021. "Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes," ECON - Working Papers 379, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    21. Bu, Di & Hanspal, Tobin & Liao, Yin & Liu, Yong, 2021. "Risk taking, preferences, and beliefs: Evidence from Wuhan," SAFE Working Paper Series 301, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    22. Christa Hainz & Nikolay Hristov, 2017. "Zur Kredithürde: Perzeption der Kreditvergabebereitschaft der Banken und unternehmensspezifische Kreditmarkterfahrung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(07), pages 51-54, April.
    23. Jaeger, David A. & Arellano-Bover, Jaime & Karbownik, Krzysztof & Martínez Matute, Marta & Nunley, John M. & Seals, Jr., R. Alan & Almunia, Miguel & Alston, Mackenzie & Becker, Sascha O. & Beneito, Pi, 2021. "The Global COVID-19 Student Survey: First Wave Results," IZA Discussion Papers 14419, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Da, Zhi & Huang, Xing & Jin, Lawrence J., 2021. "Extrapolative beliefs in the cross-section: What can we learn from the crowds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 175-196.
    25. Aucejo, Esteban M. & French, Jacob & Ugalde Araya, Maria Paola & Zafar, Basit, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; experiences;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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