Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations
In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch between different regimes, a hypothesis that finds robust empirical support from a regime-switching model with endogenous transition probabilities for output growth and realized stock market volatility in the US. JEL Classification: C53, D8, E32
|Date of creation:||Dec 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
- Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998.
"Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature,"
NBER Working Papers
6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
- Nancy P. Marion & Robert P. Flood, 1998. "Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," IMF Working Papers 98/130, International Monetary Fund.
- Hajime Tomura, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 09-15, Bank of Canada.
- Kristoffer Nimark, 2009.
"Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates,"
Economics Working Papers
1194, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2012.
- Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculative Dynamics in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 430, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2004.
"Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings
4, Econometric Society.
- Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 577-601, June.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," Working Papers 03-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008.
"Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link,"
Ifo Working Paper Series
Ifo Working Paper No. 60, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," Discussion Papers 09-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2010.
"Growth Through Heterogeneous Innovations,"
NBER Working Papers
16443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2012. "Growth Through Heterogeneous Innovations," Working Papers 12-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2010. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Akcigit, Ufuk & Kerr, William R., 2013. "Growth through heterogeneous innovations," Research Discussion Papers 28/2013, Bank of Finland.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-74, September.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003.
"Inflation forecast uncertainty,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000.
- Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Zheng Song & Giovanni Favara, 2009. "House Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Expectations," 2009 Meeting Papers 775, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Rich, Robert W & Butler, J S, 1998. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 411-19, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.