IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density

  • Fabian Krüger

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

  • Ingmar Nolte

    ()

    (Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre (FERC), University of Warwick)

This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether cross sections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their inclusion into combined predictive densities can significantly improve upon densities relying solely on time series information.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-konstanz.de/workingpaperseries/WP_43-Krueger-Nolte-11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Konstanz in its series Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz with number 2011-43.

as
in new window

Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1143
Contact details of provider: Postal: D-78457 Konstanz
Phone: +49-7531-88-2566/2565
Fax: +49-7531-88-4135
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-konstanz.de/fb

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.wiwi.uni-konstanz.de/fb

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  2. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223.
  3. Laura Coroneo & David Veredas, 2012. "A simple two-component model for the distribution of intraday returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 775-797, October.
  4. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
  5. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  6. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011. "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
  7. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
  8. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
  9. Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 137-164, September.
  10. Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
  11. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
  12. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
  13. Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Winkler, Robert L., 2008. "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 163-169.
  14. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.
  15. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, 06.
  16. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gundula Hadjiani)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.