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Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density

  • Fabian Krüger


    (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

  • Ingmar Nolte


    (Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre (FERC), University of Warwick)

This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether cross sections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their inclusion into combined predictive densities can significantly improve upon densities relying solely on time series information.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Konstanz in its series Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz with number 2011-43.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1143
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  1. Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
  3. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1599, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Laura Coroneo & David Veredas, 2012. "A simple two-component model for the distribution of intraday returns," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136189, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
  7. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  8. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, October.
  9. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 22-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  11. Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  13. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, 06.
  14. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  15. Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Winkler, Robert L., 2008. "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 163-169.
  16. Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 137-164, September.
  17. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.
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