A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle
This article presents a formal explanation of the forecast combination puzzle, that simple combinations of point forecasts are repeatedly found to outperform sophisticated weighted combinations in empirical applications. The explanation lies in the effect of finite-sample error in estimating the combining weights. A small Monte Carlo study and a reappraisal of an empirical study by Stock and Watson ["Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly" (2003) Vol. 89/3, pp. 71-90] support this explanation. The Monte Carlo evidence, together with a large-sample approximation to the variance of the combining weight, also supports the popular recommendation to ignore forecast error covariances in estimating the weight. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2009.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:3:p:331-355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.