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Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results

  • Jose, Victor Richmond R.
  • Winkler, Robert L.
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    An extensive body of literature has shown that combining forecasts can improve forecast accuracy, and that a simple average of the forecasts (the mean) often does better than more complex combining schemes. The fact that the mean is sensitive to extreme values suggests that deleting such values or reducing their extremity might be worthwhile. We study the performance of two simple robust methods, trimmed and Winsorized means, which are easy to use and understand. For the data sets we consider, they provide forecasts which are slightly more accurate than the mean, and reduce the risk of high errors. Our results suggest that moderate trimming of 10-30% or Winsorizing of 15-45% of the forecasts can provide improved combined forecasts, with more trimming or Winsorizing being indicated when there is more variability among the individual forecasts. There are some differences in the performance of the trimmed and Winsorized means, but overall such differences are not large.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4PJ6BDT-1/1/930912f25c2d6a1f0280ee34ec04c9c2
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 163-169

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:163-169
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Makridakis, Spyros, 1993. "Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 527-529, December.
    2. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    3. Yaniv, Ilan, 1997. "Weighting and Trimming: Heuristics for Aggregating Judgments under Uncertainty," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 237-249, March.
    4. Graham, John R, 1996. "Is a Group of Economists Better than One? Than None?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(2), pages 193-232, April.
    5. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    6. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
    7. Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
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