IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Leverage and beliefs: Personal experience and risk taking in margin lending

  • Peter Koudijs
  • Joachim Voth

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? This paper uses unique micro-data on collateralized lending contracts during a period of financial distress to address this question. An investor syndicate speculating in English stocks went bankrupt in 1772. Using hand-collected information from Dutch notarial archives, we examine changes in lenders' behavior following exposure to potential (but not actual) losses. Before the distress episode, financiers that lent to the ill-fated syndicate were indistinguishable from the rest. Afterwards, they behaved differently: they lent with much higher haircuts. Only lenders exposed to the failed syndicate altered their behavior. The differential change is remarkable since the distress was public knowledge, and because none of the lenders suffered actual losses – all financiers were repaid in full. Interest rates were also unaffected; the market balanced solely through changes in collateral requirements. Our findings are consistent with a heterogeneousbeliefs- interpretation of leverage. They also suggest that individual experience can modify the level of leverage in a market quickly.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/1343.pdf
File Function: Whole Paper
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1343.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1343
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Justin Murfin, 2012. "The Supply-Side Determinants of Loan Contract Strictness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1565-1601, October.
  2. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2358, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
  3. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2008. "Long Term Persistence," EIEF Working Papers Series 0810, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Aug 2008.
  4. Jarrow, Robert A, 1980. " Heterogeneous Expectations, Restrictions on Short Sales, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1105-13, December.
  5. Dimitri Vayanos, 1999. "Strategic trading and welfare in a dynamic market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 449, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
  7. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Isabel Schnabel & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity and Contagion: The Crisis of 1763," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 929-968, December.
  9. Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  11. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 15040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stephen Quinn & William Roberds, 2012. "Responding to a shadow banking crisis: the lessons of 1763," Working Paper 2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1995. "The importance of investor heterogeneity and financial market imperfections for the behavior of asset prices," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, June.
  15. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  16. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate & Jonathan Yan, 2007. "Corporate Financial Policies With Overconfident Managers," NBER Working Papers 13570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.