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Expectations and Investment

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30

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  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Yueran Ma
  • Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs' expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin's Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations and suggesting that expectations may not be rational. This evidence, like earlier findings in finance, points to the usefulness of data on actual expectations for understanding economic behavior.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2015. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 379-431 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13589
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    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Schneider, Martin & Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2018. "Uncertainty is Change," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Maiko Koga & Haruko Kato, 2017. "Behavioral Biases in Firms' Growth Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    3. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2015. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Staff Reports 734, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Aug 2018.
    4. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    5. Winkler, Fabian, 2016. "The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 01 Mar 2017.
    6. Kuchler, Theresa & Zafar, Basit, 2015. "Personal experiences and expectations about aggregate outcomes," Staff Reports 748, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    8. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    9. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    10. repec:eee:finlet:v:21:y:2017:i:c:p:235-240 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:jeborg:v:145:y:2018:i:c:p:66-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2018. "Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-79.
    13. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Research Discussion Papers 9/2018, Bank of Finland.
    14. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1065 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fossett, Sarah J. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2017. "Active Ingredients: Exploring the Key Factors Affecting the Rising Cost of Developing New Drugs," IZA Discussion Papers 10817, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    16. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:54-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2017. "Reported Preference vs. Revealed Preference: Evidence from the Propensity to Spend Tax Rebates," NBER Working Papers 23920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2016. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 22045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 41214, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    20. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stefano Ciliberti & Augustin Landier & Guillaume Simon & David Thesmar, 2016. "The Excess Returns of "Quality" Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly," Papers 1601.04478, arXiv.org.
    21. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Apr 2018.
    22. Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2018. "Formation of Market Beliefs in the Oil Market," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp619, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    23. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2017. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations and Behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," LEM Papers Series 2017/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    24. Adriano dos Reis M. Laureno Oliveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, Laura Carvalho, 2018. "Of Fairies and Governments: An ABM Evaluation of the Expansionary Austerity Hypothesis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    25. Jacopo Piana & Daniele Bianchi, 2017. "Expected Spot Prices and the Dynamics of Commodity Risk Premia," 2017 Meeting Papers 1149, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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