IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wfo/wpaper/y2018i574.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Individual Credit Market Experience and Perception of Aggregate Bank Lending. Evidence from a Firm Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Jarko Fidrmuc

    (WIFO)

  • Christa Hainz
  • Werner Hölzl

Abstract

We show that firms' credit market experience determines their perception of aggregate bank lending policy using panel data from the Austrian Business Survey between 2011 and 2016. Loan rejections have a strongly negative and persistent effect on perceptions. Interestingly, firms that receive a loan at worse than anticipated conditions show a similarly negative effect. Firms that do not need a loan tend to perceive lending policy as neutral and revise their perceptions less often. Our findings are in line with theories on sticky information, rational inattention and pessimism bias and suggest considering experience for the aggregation of perceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz & Werner Hölzl, 2018. "Individual Credit Market Experience and Perception of Aggregate Bank Lending. Evidence from a Firm Survey," WIFO Working Papers 574, WIFO.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:574
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/61587
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    2. Mirko Wiederholt & Nathanael Vellekoop, 2017. "Inflation Expectations and Choices of Households: Evidence from Matched Survey and Administrative Data," 2017 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    5. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2012. "Updating inflation expectations: Evidence from micro-data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 807-810.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    7. Camelia M. Kuhnen, 2015. "Asymmetric Learning from Financial Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2029-2062, October.
    8. Strasser, Georg, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and credit constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 25-38.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2013. "The effect of banking regulation on cross-border lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1310-1322.
    10. Popov, Alexander & Rocholl, Jörg, 2018. "Do credit shocks affect labor demand? Evidence for employment and wages during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 16-27.
    11. Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M., 2014. "The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 62-77.
    12. Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Inattentive Producers," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 793-821.
    13. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Elstner & Georg Paula, 2013. "How Much Did Oil Market Developments Contribute to the 2009 Recession in Germany?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 695-721, July.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    15. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    16. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    17. Georganas, Sotiris & Healy, Paul J. & Li, Nan, 2014. "Frequency bias in consumers׳ perceptions of inflation: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 144-158.
    18. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    19. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
    20. Enrico Sette & Giorgio Gobbi, 2015. "Relationship Lending During A Financial Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 453-481, June.
    21. Yao-Min Chiang & David Hirshleifer & Yiming Qian & Ann E. Sherman, 2011. "Do Investors Learn from Experience? Evidence from Frequent IPO Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1560-1589.
    22. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    23. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    24. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    25. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    26. Easaw, Joshy & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2010. "News and households' subjective macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 469-475, March.
    27. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
    28. Vellekoop, Nathanael & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2019. "Inflation expectations and choices of households," SAFE Working Paper Series 250, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perception of lending policy; formation of perceptions; sticky information; rational inattention; pessimism bias; behavioral macroeconomics;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.