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Local information and firm expectations about aggregates

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Müller, Lena Sophia
  • Wohlrabe, Klaus

Abstract

Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023. "Local information and firm expectations about aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:138:y:2023:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Jonas Dovern & Alexander Glas & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "Testing for differences in survey‐based density expectations: A compositional data approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1104-1122, September.
    3. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "What Is Behind the ifo Business Climate? Evidence from a Meta-Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11482, CESifo.
    4. Felix Leiss & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "Questions, Measures, and Meaning: Interpreting Indicators from the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 12094, CESifo.
    5. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    6. Jonas Dovern & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "The Causal Effects of Trump's Reelection on Business Expectations of German Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 12266, CESifo.
    7. Couture, Cody & Owen, Ann L., 2025. "Political advertising and consumer sentiment: Evidence from U.S. presidential elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "Explaining Business Sentiment: Insights from the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 21(2), pages 213-235, December.
    9. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Gemmi, Luca, 2024. "Rational overoptimism and limited liability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Helena Antonie Baier & Philipp Lergetporer & Thomas Rittmannsberger, 2025. "Firms’ expectations about skill shortages," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 1095-1112, August.
    12. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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