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Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations

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  • Nagel, Stefan
  • Kuhnen, Camelia
  • Das, Sreyoshi

Abstract

We show that individuals’ macroeconomic expectations are influenced by their socioeconomic status (SES). People with higher income or higher education are more optimistic about future macroeconomic developments, including business conditions, the national unemployment rate, and stock market returns. The spread in beliefs between high- and low-SES individuals diminishes significantly during recessions. A comparison with professional forecasters and historical data reveals that the beliefs wedge reflects excessive pessimism on the part of low-SES individuals. SES-driven expectations help explain why higher-SES individuals are more inclined to invest in the stock market and more likely to consider purchasing homes, durable goods, or cars.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagel, Stefan & Kuhnen, Camelia & Das, Sreyoshi, 2017. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12464
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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