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Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data

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  • Jaroslav Borovicka

    (New York University)

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic framework with agents facing time-varying concerns for model misspecification. These concerns lead agents to interpret the economy through the lens of a pessimistically biased `worst-case' model. We use survey data to identify exogenous fluctuations in the worst-case model. In an estimated New-Keynesian business cycle model with frictional labor markets, these ambiguity shocks explain a substantial portion of the variation in labor market quantities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Borovicka, 2016. "Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data," 2016 Meeting Papers 1615, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1615
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rozsypal, Filip & Schlafmann, Kathrin, 2017. "Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and its Aggregate Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 12028, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Das, Sreyoshi & Kuhnen, Camelia & Nagel, Stefan, 2017. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2017. "Robustness, Low Risk-Free Rates, and Consumption Volatility in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 80046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1641 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    6. George-Marios Angeletos, 2017. "Frictional Coordination," NBER Working Papers 24178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lars Peter Hansen, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 479-489 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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