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Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a Microfounded New Keynesian Model

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  • Adam, Klaus
  • Woodford, Michael

Abstract

We consider optimal monetary stabilization policy in a New Keynesian model with explicit microfoundations, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs close enough to model-consistency. We show how to characterize robustly optimal policy without restricting consideration a priori to a particular parametric family of candidate policy rules. We show that robustly optimal policy can be implemented through commitment to a target criterion involving only the paths of inflation and a suitably defined output gap, but that a concern for robustness requires greater resistance to surprise increases in inflation than would be considered optimal if one could count on the private sector to have 'rational expectations'.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2012. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a Microfounded New Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8826
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    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 274-303, March.
    4. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
    5. Angelo Reati, 2011. "A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 160-166.
    6. Giannoni, Marc P. & Woodford, Michael, 2017. "Optimal target criteria for stabilization policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 55-106.
    7. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    8. Hans, Erwin & Wullink, Gerhard & van Houdenhoven, Mark & Kazemier, Geert, 2008. "Robust surgery loading," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1038-1050, March.
    9. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Robust estimation and control under commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 258-301, October.
    11. Li-Lin Ku & Chien-Pai Han, 2008. "Robust testing procedures of process locations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(5), pages 579-595, October.
    12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Time Inconsistency of Robust Control?," Chapters, in: Roger E.A. Farmer (ed.), Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    2. Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc P. & Preston, Bruce, 2018. "Some implications of learning for price stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2018. "Leaning against housing prices as robustly optimal monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 601, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Dave, Chetan & Malik, Samreen, 2017. "A tale of fat tails," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 293-317.
    5. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.
    6. Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2020. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Design," Policy Hub 2020-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Brendon, Charles & Ellison, Martin, 2018. "Time-consistently undominated policies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87176, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Frank Hespeler & Marco M. Sorge, 2018. "Does Near†Rationality Matter In First†Order Approximate Solutions? A Perturbation Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 97-113, January.
    9. Klaus Adam & Michael Woodford, 2020. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Housing," CESifo Working Paper Series 8127, CESifo.
    10. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    11. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis Without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 303-346, May.
    12. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2020. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2016. "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 22225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2017. "Monetary policy and dark corners in a stylized agent-based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 507-537, October.
    15. Frank Hespeler & Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "Does Near-Rationality Matter in First-Order Approximate Solutions? A Perturbation Approach," CSEF Working Papers 339, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    belief distortions; near-rational expectations; robust control; target criterion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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