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Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model With Housing

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  • Klaus Adam
  • Michael Woodford

Abstract

We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keyne- sian model with a housing sector. With rational private sector expectations about housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized by a standard 'target criterion' that refers to inflation and the output gap, without making reference to housing prices. When the policymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rational ones and seeks a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. For empirically realistic cases, the central bank should then 'lean against' housing prices, i.e., following unexpected housing price increases (decreases), policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot (overshoot) its normal targets for inflation and the output gap. Robustly optimal policy does not require that the central bank distinguishes between 'fundamental' and 'non-fundamental' movements in housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & Michael Woodford, 2020. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model With Housing," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_154, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_154
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2025. "Inflation expectations and price-setting decisions: insights from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1507, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Kockerols, Thore & Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt & Mimir, Yasin, 2026. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    3. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Abdelkader Aguir & Nesrine Dardouri, 2025. "What Can We Learn About the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism? Evidence from a Peripheral Country After a Political Revolution and COVID-19," Post-Print hal-05290329, HAL.
    5. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Abdelkader Aguir & Nesrine Dardouri, 2025. "What Can We Learn About the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism? Evidence from a Peripheral Country After a Political Revolution and COVID-19," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, September.
    7. von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "The importance of credit demand for business cycle dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Ulrich Roschitsch & Hannes Twieling, 2025. "United in Booms, Divided in Busts: Regional House Price Cycles and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 25-36, Bank of Canada.
    9. Vedanta Dhamija & Ricardo Nunes & Roshni Tara, 2023. "House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0823, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    11. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    12. Adam, Klaus & Pfäuti, Oliver & Reinelt, Timo, 2025. "Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates, and the optimal inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2022. "Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Yasutaka Ogawa & Jiro Yoshida, 2024. "Aging, Housing, and Macroeconomic Inefficiency," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    15. Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 115500, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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