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Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises

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  • Yasin Mimir

Abstract

We study conditions under which a leaning against the wind (LAW)-type monetary policy is advisable to address risks to financial stability. We do so within a regime-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous crises and persistent financial cycles based on partly backward-looking house price beliefs. Under empirically plausible financial cycles, LAW increases inflation volatility because it amplifies the effects of supply shocks on inflation. It also leads to a lower average inflation, resulting in more frequent episodes of a binding lower bound on interest rates. LAW is advisable only if (i) the central bank puts more weight on output stability or (ii) financial cycles are less persistent than observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin Mimir, 2023. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Papers 56, European Stability Mechanism.
    • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:56
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andersen, Henrik & Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger, 2024. "Optimal capital adequacy ratios for banks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    leaning against the wind; monetary policy; financial cycle; regime-switching DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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