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The Trade offs in Leaning Against the Wind

Author

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  • François Gourio

    () (The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Anil K. Kashyap

    () (University of Chicago
    Bank of England)

  • Jae W. Sim

    () (The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Abstract

Credit booms sometimes lead to financial crises and subsequent severe and persistent economic slumps. So should monetary policy “lean against the wind” and counteract excess credit growth, or should it focus only on inflation and output stability? We study this issue quantitatively in a small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which the risk of financial crises depends on “excess credit.” We compare monetary policy rules responding to the output gap to rules that respond to excess credit. We find that responding to credit can lead to a lower average probability of financial crisis, at the cost of higher cyclical volatility in inflation and output. We discuss the factors that affect the desirability of leaning against the wind.

Suggested Citation

  • François Gourio & Anil K. Kashyap & Jae W. Sim, 2018. "The Trade offs in Leaning Against the Wind," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 70-115, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:66:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-017-0043-3
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-017-0043-3
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    2. Alessandro Cantelmo, 2020. "Rare disasters, the natural interest rate and monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1309, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Svensson, Lars E O, 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind: The Role of Different Assumptions About the Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2019. "Prudential Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Aikman, David & Giese, Julia & Kapadia, Sujit & McLeay, Michael, 2018. "Targeting financial stability: macroprudential or monetary policy?," Bank of England working papers 734, Bank of England.
    6. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
    7. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2018. "La relación entre política monetaria y política de estabilización financiera," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 082-106, August.
    8. João F. Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica Wachter, 2018. "Foreseen Risks," NBER Working Papers 25277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Rose Cunningham, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Cross‐Country Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 403-453, March.
    10. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "La política monetaria cercada por un movimiento de pinzas," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 004-044, August.
    11. Adrian, Tobias & Duarte, Fernando & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions: A Cross-Country Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 12681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Jan Filacek & Ivan Sutoris, 2019. "Inflation Targeting Flexibility: The CNB's Reaction Function under Scrutiny," Research and Policy Notes 2019/02, Czech National Bank.
    13. Mikhail Andreev & M. Udara Peiris & Aleksandr Shirobokov & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy and Financial (In)Stability Analysis in the Russian Federation," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 3-37, September.
    14. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2020. "Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 8484, CESifo.
    16. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2020. "Predictable Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 27396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Randal K. Quarles, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability : a speech at \"Developments in Empirical Macroeconomics,\" a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank ," Speech 1068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Nückles, Marc, 2020. "Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 779-789.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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